Subject: HCN ALBERTO - 9:00 A.M. - TUESDAY - AUGUST 8, 2000
Date: 8/8/2000 9:07 AM Eastern Daylight Time
**ALBERTO WEAKENS SOME OVERNIGHT - SOME SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE DOWN THE ROAD**
WELL, THE SCENARIO I POSED YESTERDAY SEEMS TO BE COMING TO PASS. ALBERTO BEING SO SMALL HAS "SLIPPED" UNDER THE TROF DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT IN MY MIND BASED ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS THAT IF ALBERTO HAD BEEN A LARGER HURRICANE HE WOULD HAVE BEEN DEFECTED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT HAS SERVED ONLY TO PRODUCE SHEARING OVER ALBERTO AND DONE LITTLE TO TURN HIM
MORE TO THE N.W.
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS LARGE PLUME OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAKING OFF TO THE NORTH AS A RESULT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR. SMALL "BLOB" OF CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER AND OVERALL STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO NOW IS FOR ALBERTO TO CONTINUE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST (275-285) NEXT 48-60 HOURS. ONCE ALBERTO PASSES THE TROF AXIS IN 24-36 HOURS AN ALMOST IDEAL SITUATION EXISTS FOR INTENSIFICATION...IN SOME WAYS SIMILAR TO ANDREW.
NO, I'M NOT PREDICTING ANOTHER ANDREW...JUST THAT CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL BECOME SIMILAR TO ANDREW THAT PROPELLED HIM FROM A DEPRESSION TO A HURRICANE IN A VERY SHORT TIME. BOTTOM LINE...ALBERTO COULD WEAKEN SOME TODAY INTO TOMORROW...OR HOLD HIS OWN...AFTER THAT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A 100-115 MPH HURRICANE.
TRACK: ALBERTO WILL STILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS BY A SAFE DISTANCE...NOT A HUGE DISTANCE...BUT A SAFE DISTANCE...ABOUT 150-200 MILES. I THINK LATEST TPC 72 HR POSITION IS A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH. ISLAND RESIDENTS AN BREATHE A SIGH OF RELIEF.
ALBERTO WILL CONTINUE W.N.W. TO N.W. AS HE PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITH THE IDEA AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR DAYS....OF A TROF MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE WEEK/OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS TROF LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH TO FINALLY PICKUP ALBERTO AND RECURVE HIM OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF UNITED STATES...STILL CAN'T BE SURE IF HE PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA OR A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE WEST.
FEEL QUITE CONFIDENT IN THE ABOVE FCST.
AS FAR AS OTHER AREAS....NOTHING IS ABOUT TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BUT SOME AREAS NEED TO BE WATCHED. I'M MOST INTERESTED IN THE AREA EAST OF BAHAMAS. CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION PULSES UP AND DOWN AND PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING SO I THINK THIS AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
I'M NOT AS IMPRESSED WITH GULF SYSTEM AS SOME. SST'S ARE LIKE A BATHTUB SO THATS NOT AN ISSUE....UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAIR TO GOOD...NOT IDEAL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THAT SYSTEM REMAINS A TROPICAL WAVE AS IT PUSHES WEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTH TEXAS.
OTHER THAN THESE TWO AREAS..NOTHING ELSE OUT THERE WORTH A MENTION AT THIS POINT.