HURRICANE ALBERTO & T.D.#4
ISSUED: 4:30 P.M. - WEDNESDAY - 8/9/00

ALBERTO IS HOLDING HIS OWN TODAY. CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING SLOWLY MORE ORGANIZED AND EXPECT ALBERTO TO BE A HURRICANE AGAIN TOMORROW. NO CHANGE IN TRACK OR INTENSITY THINKING. STILL EXPECT ALBERTO TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA BY 200+ MILES. STILL BELIEVE 100-115 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

T.D. #4:

T.D. #4 HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY. BASIC MOTION HAS BEEN 270 AT 2-3 MPH...DRIFTING REALLY. CENTER AT THIS HOUR IS NEAR 
27.9N/78.0W. THIS MEANS T.D. #4 HAS COVERED ABOUT 30 MILES SINCE DAYBREAK. 

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER...NOT ALOT...BUT SOME. EASTERLY SHEAR HAS LET UP SOME
SO THIS COULD BE THE BEGINNINGS OF SOME ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION. I ACTUALLY BELIEVE IT IS LOOKING AT THE VERY LATEST VISIBLE PICTURE. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS ACTUALLY VERY WELL ORGANIZED...JUST LACKING CONVECTION. 
LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE IS 77 KTS. BY 72 HOURS. THIS SEEMS HIGH BUT A MODERATE TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY THEN WOULD SEEM WITHIN REASON...AND THAT IS WHAT I'M FORECASTING AT THE MOMENT.

THE SIZE OF THIS T.D. IS EXTREMELY SMALL..NOT MORE THAN 200 MILES N/S & E/W...AS A RESULT IT COULD HAVE TO COME VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR EFFECTS TO BE REALLY FELT.

TRACK:

ALL LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. MY THINKING OF EARLIER TODAY OF SYSTEM CROSSING FL COAST IN 24 HOURS HAS 
GONE BY THE BOARDS. LATEST THINKING IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE PERHAPS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT.
THIS MEANS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND SHAPE OF THE COAST ITSELF WILL HELP THE CAUSE.

MOTION NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS GOING TO BE VERY SLOW...AND IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. BEYOND THAT
AS TROF DEEPENS INTO THE EAST FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TURN MORE NORTH - THEN NORTHEAST. 
EVENTUAL TRACK COULD BRING IN TO WITHIN 100-150 MILES OFFSHORE OF EXTREME S.E. NORTH CAROLINA AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST.
DEPENDING ON INTENSITY IT COULD BRING WAVES/SWELLS TO S.E. BEACHES LATER IN THE WEEK.

AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS TO TURN INTO A LARGE STORM OF EXCEPT FOR A GUSTY BREEZE IT SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR....SOME SQUALLS COULD IMPINGE ON FL COAST AND THEN LATER S.E. NC COAST BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

THIS IS NOT AN ULTRA HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST - BUT REASONABLY SO.

ELSEWHERE...NOT MUCH GOING ON. WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE LITTLE T.D. HAS SHOWN TO SIGN OF DEVELOPMENT.

GULF & CARIBBEAN REMAIN QUIET.

WAVE COMING OFF AFRICA LOOKS BETTER THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS FAIRLY FAR SOUTH AND I THINK IF THERE IS ANYTHING TO WATCH OTHER
THAN T.D. #4 OVER THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS IT WILL BE THIS FEATURE.