TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
HURRICANE ALBERTO & TROPICAL DEPRESSION #4
THURSDAY - AUGUST 10, 2000 - 6:15 A.M.

ALBERTO:

ALBERTO PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE. I THOUGHT HE WOULD HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN HE CURRENTLY IS THIS MORNING BUT INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. LATEST THINKING IS THAT INTENSIFICATION WILL GET UNDERWAY TODAY AND STIL THINK A 100 MPH HURRICANE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE HE MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. TRACK IS ALONG THE LINES OF MY THINKING OF YESTERDAY. NO THREAT TO ANY LAND.

T.D. #4:

T.D. #4 IS ALSO BEHAVING AS FORECAST YESTERDAY. CONVECTION PULSES UP AND DOWN AND SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD 
ORGANIZATION. CONVECTIVE BURST THAT STARTED LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON FLARED UP OVERNIGHT AND HAS DOWN DIED BACK SOME.  STILL THINK T.D.#4 CAN INTENSIFY TO MODERATE TO PERHAPS STRONG T.S. AS HE PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST NEXT 24-26 HOURS.  LATEST TPC INTENSITY FCST LOOKS GOOD...40 KTS. BY 72 HOURS.

TRACK THINKING FROM YESTERDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD TODAY AND TPC HAS BACKED THEIR SOLUTION TO THE LEFT SOMEWHAT....CLOSER TO WHAT I WAS THINKING LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. STILL THINK A TRACK TO ABOUT 150 MILES S.E. OF S.E. NORTH CAROLINA LOOKS REASONABLE BY 60-72 HOURS. SOME "SQUALLS" COULD IMPINGE ON THE FL COAST TODAY AND LATER DOWN THE ROAD OVER S.E./E NORTH CAROLINA. DEPENDING ON INTENSITY SWELLS COULD AFFECT THE NC BEACHES OVER THE WEEKEND. 

T.D.#4 REMAINS VERY SMALL AND WILL AFFECT AN EXTREMELY SMALL AREA.

ELSEWHERE...GULF & CARIBBEAN LOOK QUIET - NO DEVELOPMENT THERE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. 

WAVE THAT CAME OFF AFRICA LAST 24-36 HOURS STILL LOOKS ORGANIZED AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LATEST NOGAPS IS NOT AS "GUNG-HO" WITH THIS FEATURE AND JUST TRACKS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THEN LOSES IT. MRF ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THIS SYSTEM AND RUNS WITH IT....TRACKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...TOWARD THE S.E. BAHAMAS..THEN RECURVATURE OFF THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROF THAT DIGS INTO THE EAST NEXT WEEKEND. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONSIDERING WE ARE NOW JUST 30 DAYS AWAY FROM THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON THINGS ARE GOING TO START HAPPENING FAST IF WE'RE GOING TO GET DOWN TO BUSINESS.