JUST A SHORT UPDATE ON ALBERTO & T.D. #4

ALBERTO:

AFTER LOOKING AT FIRST SEVERAL VISIBLE PICS THIS MORNING IT APPEARS ALBERTO IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN I EXPECTED. AS A RESULT THE LOFTY PREDICTION OF 100 MPH FOR FUTURE INTENSITY I MADE EARLIER THIS MORNING NEEDS TO BE SCALED BACK. THINKING NOW IS ALBERTO WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH OFFICIAL TPC INTENSITY FCST.

T.D. #4:

FIRST TWO VISIBLE PICS OF T.D. #4 REVEAL A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS NOT NEAR AS DEVELOPED AS YESTERDAY. LATEST SHORT TERM MOTION APPEARS TO BE ALMOST DUE NORTH (350) AT 3-4 MPH. SINCE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LESS DEFINED THIS RAISES THE QUESTION ABOUT FUTURE INTENSITY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR RECON LATER TODAY TO SEE WHAT THEY FIND...BUT BASED ON APPEARANCE OF SYSTEM NOW HARD TO IMAGINE MORE THAN A MINIMAL T.S. COMING OUT OF THIS. SINCE
MOTION APPEARS TO BE NORTH...THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE EAST APPEARS TO BE ALREADY TAKING HOLD OF STEERING. THE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROF SHOULD ALSO HELP TO LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM. NO CHANGE IN TRACK THINKING FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CONVECTION OVER N.W. CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.