TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
ISSUED: 9:30 A.M. - FRIDAY - 8/11/00

ALBERTO: NOT MUCH LEFT TO SAY ABOUT ALBERTO...HE IS LOCATED 350 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA AND HEADING INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. MORNING SAT PICS REVEAL A WELL DEVELOPED HURRICANE WITH A LARGE EYE. ALBERTO HAS LIKELY PEAKED AT 85-90 MPH AND
WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY BEFORE WEAKENING WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE: AS MENTIONED IN 10:00 A.M. UPDATE YESTERDAY OUR T.D. WAS STARTING TO FADE...AND FADE IT DID. T.D. #4 WAS DECLARED DEAD AT 11:00 P.M. YESTERDAY. A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE REMNANTS LOOKED BETTER ABOUT 3:00 THIS MORNING BUT IS IN THE PULSE DOWN MODE AT THIS HOUR. 

TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE T.D. #4 REMNANTS: I THINK TO MUCH IS BEING MADE OF THIS. I SEE NO EVIDENCE THAT THIS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION AND T.D. #4 REMAINS LATER TODAY. ONLY EFFECT I CAN SEE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS TO ENHANCE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ALONG STALLED FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS BAROCLINIC LOW FORMS OFF LONG ISLAND. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE MOST AT RISK FOR ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL.

REFERENCE NORTHEAST WEATHER BOARD AND PTRAVEL UPDATES CONCERNING WHAT EFFECT IF ANY THIS WILL HAVE ON METRO NYC WEATHER.

ELSEWHERE: GULF AND CARIBBEAN REMAIN QUIET AND NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC: REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED BUT LACKS DEEP CONVECTION. IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTH OF DUE WEST AT NEAR 15 MPH. LATEST NOGAPS DOES NOTHING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE MRF DEVELOPS IT AND ANOTHER WAVE BEHIND IT AND TRACKS THE LEAD SYSTEM TO OFF THE FL COAST IN A WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM BEHIND IT RECURVES INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

MRF HAS BEEN SPINNING TROPICAL SYSTEMS UP BY THE DOZEN LATELY AND UNTIL I SEE THE SPIN WITH CONVECTION I'VE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION.

CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE ATLANTIC SO I WILL WATCH THIS WAVE BUT DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE SLOW. AS FAR AS TRACKING IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...I HAVE MY DOUBTS ABOUT THAT AS WELL...IT WILL DEPEND WHERE/IF THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO ORGANIZE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO THE PATTERN OVER OUR HEMISPHERE IN THE 7-10 DAYS AHEAD SO TRACKING A SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT YET EXIST IS PURE SPECULATION.

ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR GETTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO NEW NAMED STORMS. ONLY CAVEAT IS IF SYSTEM OFF THE COAST SUDDENLY GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER...I DOUBT IT WILL.

I'LL UPDATE AGAIN MONDAY SINCE I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE OVER THE WEEKEND.