TROPICAL DISCUSSION
ISSUED: 9:15 A.M. - MONDAY - AUGUST 14, 2000

ALBERTO: MORAL OF THE STORY WITH ALBERTO IS. STICK WITH YOUR ORIGINAL FORECAST UNTIL YOU ARE 100% SURE IT CAN'T HAPPEN.
I HAD THE 105-115 MPH INTENSITY THEN BACKED OFF 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE RAPID INTENSITY PHASE BEGAN BECAUSE IT WASN'T HAPPENING
FAST ENOUGH. CONDITIONS WERE RIPE FOR THAT INTENSITY TO BE ACHIEVED AND I SHOULD HAVE LEFT MY ORIGINAL FORECAST ALONE.
ALBERTO PEAKED AT 125 MPH (CAT 3) AND IS NOW STARTING TO TURN EXTRA TROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH A MID LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC....IT MAY EVENTUALLY END UP SPINNING DOWN IN PLACE AS STEERING BECOMES WEAK...NO THREAT TO LAND.

THERE ARE TWO WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC...THE LEAD WAVE IS NEAR 50W AND THE SECOND ONE IS BACK NEAR 25...I EXPECT NO DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LEAD WAVE...THE SECOND WAVE HAS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW. EVEN IF THE SECOND WAVE DOES DEVELOP I HAVE QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR WEST IT GETS....WILL HOLD THAT THOUGHT UNTIL WE SEE IF SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP...CONVECTION WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS SPARSE AT THE MOMENT.

T.D. #5: A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN CONVECTION HAS TAKEN PLACE LAST FEW HOURS....WITH SOME VERY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.
I SUSPECT IF THIS CONVECTION HOLDS FOR REST OF THE MORNING THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 11:00 A.M.
VISIBLE SAT PIC SHOULD BE IN WITHIN THE HOUR AND THAT WILL ALSO HELP TO GET AN IDEA AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON. RECON WILL BE
IN THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

INTENSITY: TPC FCST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...WILL NEED TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS SINCE IF THIS CONVECTIVE BURST IS THE START OF INTENSIFICATION IT COULD SIGNAL A STRONGER SYSTEM DOWN THE ROAD.

TRACK: MY FCST AT THIS POINT WOULD HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTH OF TPC OUTLOOK...I'M THINKING MORE WESTWARD MOTION THAN ANYTHING ELSE. MY FCST WOULD BRING CENTER IN NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. IF THIS IS CORRECT THIS WOULD PUT BROWNSVILLE ON THE STRONGER FRONT RIGHT QUAD.

WILL SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD TODAY...GET A BETTER CENTER FIX AND SEE HOW CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AND THAN UPDATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE VERY LEAST THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAINS OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS. RESIDENTS OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE FUTURE OF THIS THIS SYSTEM.

MORE LATER.