TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
ISSUED: WEDNESDAY - 8/16/00 - 5:00 P.M.

JUST A SHORT UPDATE ON OUR ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE SITUATION. REFERENCE UPDATE FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.

WAVE #1 LOCATED NEAR 46 WEST: CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOME DURING THE DAY AND IT APPEARS TO ME SYSTEM IS **SLOWLY**
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. LATEST UPPER WIND PROGS FCST EVEN MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. I WILL CONTINUE TO FCST SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.


SOMEONE RAISED THE QUESTION A FEW POSTS BACK (I THINK IT WAS BURN...BUT I FORGET) WHAT EFFECTS ALBERTO OR UPPER TROF THAT
INFLUENCED ALBERTO MIGHT HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM WERE IT TO DEVELOP....I THINK THATS WHAT THE QUESTION WAS? ALBERTO IS FAR 
ENOUGH AWAY NOT TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THIS SYSTEM AS IS THE UPPER TROF THAT ORIGINALLY TURNED ALBERTO TO THE NORTH.
LATEST 12Z PROGS OFF AVN AND ITS EXTENSION ARGUE STRONGLY THAT THIS SYSTEM BE IT A WAVE/T.D./T.S. EVENTUALLY TURN W.N.W./N.W. IN THE NEAR TERM...(THURS/FRI) THEN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. IN FACT LOOKING AT LATEST VAPOR LOOP
IT APPEARS THIS PROCESS IS STARTING TO GET UNDERWAY. BOTTOM LINE...I THINK THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP BUT IS NO THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.

OTHER WAVE (#2) S.S.W. OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS LOST MOST OF ITS CONVECTION AND IS RATHER FAR SOUTH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...ON WAVE #2 WILL BE VERY SLOW TO OCCUR. 

ANOTHER WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TODAY AND HAS HELD A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.
WE ARE NOW INTO THE OFFICIAL CAPE VERDE SEASON (8/15 - 9/15...MORE OR LESS) I MUST SAY I'M NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED
WITH HOW THESE WAVES ARE HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE WEST. ACTUALLY FOR THE 16TH OF AUGUST IT LOOKS QUIET OVERALL.
NEXT "MAGICAL DATE" IS 8/20...WHEN THERE IS A CLIMO SPIKE IN TROPICAL ACTIVITY.

I'M NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ON TRACKS OF THESE TWO EASTERN ATLANTIC WAVES...ALTHOUGH I HAVE MY THOUGHTS.

DOS HAD MENTIONED A FEW POSTS BACK ABOUT THIS POTENTIALLY BEING A YEAR WITH NO EAST COAST LANDFALLS..OR SOMETHING ALONG
THOSE LINES. TRUST ME DOS THE THOUGHT HAS CROSSED MY MIND. I'M NOT READY TO JUMP ONTO THAT TRAIN WITH BOTH FEET BUT THAT IS A POSSIBILITY. AT THIS POINT I'M LEANING SLIGHTLY AGAINST THAT IDEA...BUT NOT BY THAT MUCH. THERE ARE SOME SCENARIOS WHERE THE EAST COAST COULD BE OPEN TO TROUBLE..ESPECIALLY AS I'VE BEEN THINKING ALL ALONG...THE S.E. COAST.

I THINK THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL BE TELLING. THERE ARE SUBTLE INDICATIONS OF DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF THE LW PATTERN AND IF CORRECT IT SHOULD BE MORE THAN EVIDENT BY THE CLOSE OF AUGUST. IF THAT THINKING IS CORRECT IT COULD BE JUST IN TIME FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER PART OF THE SEASON AND THIS WOULD FIT WELL WITH CLIMO FOR EAST COAST STRIKES.

THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY EVEN WITH THE PATTERN WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THAT SOMETHING STAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME AND THEN SLIPS UNDER AN EAST COAST TROF THAT IS IN "LIFT OUT" MODE...THEN TURNS W.N.W. OR N.W. AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES BUILDS WEST AHEAD OF NEXT S/W DIGGING INTO LW POSITION. THIS WOULD MORE LIKELY THAN NOT BE A FLORIDA SCENARIO.

THESE ARE JUST TWO POSSIBILITIES...SO I'M NOT READY TO LET ANY GUARDS DOWN. BUT DOS DOES MAKE A GOOD POINT AND ONE THAT HAS BEEN FLOATING AROUND THIS OFFICE AS WELL. I'LL HAVE A MUCH BETTER IDEA ON THIS AS WE CLOSE IN ON LABOR DAY.

GUESS THATS IT FOR NOW.