TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
ISSUED: 9:00 P.M. - SUNDAY - 8/20/00


CURRENTLY: DEBBY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE. BANDING FEATURES ARE MOST NOTICIBLE ON THE NORTHERN & WESTERN SIDE.  OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED BUT APPEARS TO BE WEAKEST ON THE EASTERN SIDE...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEAR. THERE REMAIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS MOSTLY ON THE NORTHERN & WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. SINCE INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN SLOW I SEE NO REASON FOR IT TO RAPIDLY INCREASE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO A CONTINUED SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY. FORWARD MOTION CONTINUES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A RATHER BRISK 18 MPH.


INTENSITY: LATEST SHIPS IS: 80 KTS. IN 72 HOURS....I HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THIS.

OTHER THAN THE NORMAL ISSUES WITH INTENSITY FCSTING..THE ADDITIONAL FACTOR FOR INTENSITY FCST HERE IS TRACK.
TRACK WILL BE KEY AS WE HEAD TO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. IF DEBBY STAYS OFFSHORE PUERTO RICO & DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ODDS FAVOR A STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT IF DEBBY TRACKS OVER OR HUGS THE COAST OF THESE ISLANDS THE INTENSITY COULD FALL OFF..PERHAPS SHARPLY DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK. MY FCST OF 95 MPH ASSUMES TRACK IS CORRECT AND CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WATER...EVEN THE 95 MPH COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE SINCE AT LEAST THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE TO TANGLE WITH THE MTS. OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WILL LEAVE FCST AT 95 MPH FOR NOW AND LOOK AT THIS AGAIN TOMORROW. I DO NOT SEE ANYTHING ON THE MAPS AT THIS TIME THAT LEADS ME TO BELIEVE DEBBY BECOMES A MAJOR (CAT 3+) HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.


TRACK: MY LATEST TRACK FORECAST Click here: SNONUT's hurricane page IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF FORECAST ISSUED THIS
MORNING. LITTLE HAS CHANGED AND BASIC REASONING FROM THIS MORNING REMAINS. I BELIEVE TROF MOVING INTO THE EASTERN 
U.S. LATER IN THE WORK WEEK WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE AN AFFECT ON DEBBY...BUT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE? DAY 4/DAY 5 TRACK FCST IN THIS UPDATE IMPLIES CENTER WILL BE CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST FCST IS DOWN CENTER OF CONE BUT ANYWHERE
IN THE CONE IS FAIR GAME. IF SOUTHERN PORTION OF "CONE" IS REALIZED THEN LANDFALL WOULD BE LIKELY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME LATER ON FRIDAY. I AM NOT FORECASTING LANDFALL AT THIS TIME AS CENTER OF CONE WOULD KEEP CENTER SOME 60 MILES OFF THE FL COAST. WHILE THAT SCENARIO IS BEST FOR FL AS IT WOULD KEEP THE STATE ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE STORM...IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE STATE WITH RAIN/WIND AND ROUGH SEAS. CAN'T GET MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT THIS FAR OUT...NEEDLESS TO SAY AS I MENTIONED THIS MORNING DEBBY WILL AT THE VERY LEAST CAUSE SOME TENSE MOMENTS IN THE DAYS AHEAD. IN ADDITION...I EXPECT A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED DAYS 4/5 AS STEERING BECOMES WEAKER FOR A TIME.

12Z GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN DIVIDED. THE NOGAPS REMAINS ON THE SOUTH WITH DEBBY SKIRTING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA 
THEN MOVING INTO THE S.E. GULF. THE UKMET IS SIMILAR TO ITS PRIOR RUN BUT IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WITH RECURVATURE 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN NORTH SOME 200 MILES OFF THE FL COAST. LATEST AVN AND AVNX ARE SIMILAR TO 
UKMET BUT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. CANADIAN GLOBAL STILL IMPLIES RECURVATURE WELL EAST OF FL. MY LATEST TRACK 
PROJECTION IS CLOSE TO LATEST UKMET, ANVX AND LATEST L-BAR...AND CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT NORTH 18Z GFDL AND 
OFFICIAL TPC TRACK.

TPC TROPICAL MODELS: 18Z GFDL IS SIMILAR TO 12Z RUN...TRACKING DEBBY THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHERN ISLANDS..THROUGH THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS..ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO..THEN ALONG NORTH COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
AGAIN MY FCST TRACK IS ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH OF THIS....AT 72 HOURS...HAIR SPLITTING. LATEST 00Z TPC SUITE SHOWS L-BAR THE SOUTHERN MOST MODEL ABOUT 90 MILES N.E. OF THE N.E. COAST OF DOM. REP AT 72 HOURS...DEEP BAM IS ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF
L-BAR...A90E IS IN BETWEEN. MEDIUM BAM IS OUTLIER ABOUT 175 MILES EAST OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

RESIDENTS OF THE N.E. ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF DEBBY CLOSELY AS IT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST ISLANDS IN 30-40 HOURS.

NEXT UPDATE AROUND 10AM MONDAY.