TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
ISSUED: 9:00 P.M. - MONDAY - 8/21/00

CURRENTLY: AS OF 5PM TPC POSITION WAS 16.3/59.4 MOVING NORTH OF DUE WEST (280) AT 22 MPH. THIS MOTION WITH A SLOWLY 
GAINING NORTHWARD MOTION WILL CONTINNUE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO 
MONTSERRAT, ST. JOHNS & NEVIS & EMERGE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF SABA. FROM THERE IT SHOULD CONTINUE AND PASS VERY CLOSE TO IF NOT OVER ST. CROIX. ISLANDS TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM MONTSERRAT TO ST. CROIX WILL TAKE THE WORST OF THIS WITH AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...WITH LOCAL AREAS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS GETTING CAT 1 HURRICANE WINDS. THE STORM IS MOVING FAST SO THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE TIME OF THE WORST CONDITIONS TO 4-6 HOURS AT MOST.


LATEST IR SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS DEBBY MAY BE FINALLY GETTING "STACKED" WITH THE LL CENTER COMING BACK UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION PLACED OVER TOP...WON'T KNOW FOR SURE FOR NEXT 6-12 HOURS. BUT I SUSPECT DEBBY WILL BE A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

INTENSITY: LATEST (18Z) SHIPS IS NEAR 90 KTS. AT 72 HOURS...WHICH ASSUMING DEBBY DOES NOT TANGLE WITH TO MUCH LAND SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AND 100 MPH IS INDICATED IN MY FCST.

MY THINKING ON INTENSITY HAS NOT CHANGED AND THIS IS JUST A CONTINUATION FROM LAST UPDATE.

OTHER THAN THE NORMAL ISSUES WITH INTENSITY FCSTING..THE ADDITIONAL FACTOR FOR INTENSITY FCST HERE IS TRACK.
TRACK WILL BE KEY AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY. IF DEBBY STAYS OFFSHORE PUERTO RICO & DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ODDS FAVOR A STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT IF DEBBY TRACKS OVER OR HUGS THE COAST OF THESE ISLANDS THE INTENSITY
COULD FALL OFF..PERHAPS SHARPLY DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK. MY FCST OF 100 MPH ASSUMES TRACK IS CORRECT AND CENTER
REMAINS MAINLY OVER THE WATER OR RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF PR & DR.

I DO NOT SEE ANYTHING ON THE MAPS AT THIS TIME THAT LEADS ME TO BELIEVE DEBBY BECOMES A MAJOR (CAT 3+) HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS....EVEN BEYOND THAT ODDS FAVOR HER NOT REACHING 115+...BUT THAT IS NOT CERTAIN BY ANY MEANS JUST YET...AND I'VE NOT CLOSED THE DOOR ON THAT OPTION.


TRACK: MY LATEST TRACK FORECAST Click here: SNONUT's hurricane page HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT 60-75 MILES TO THE SOUTH
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD. REFERENCE FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR MORE INFO. CENTER OF DEBBY SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER ST. CROIX AND CONTINUE TO THE W.N.W. PASSING OVER N.E. PUERTO RICO AND EMERGING ON THE N.W. COAST. FROM THERE IT SHOULD CONTINUE W.N.W. AWAY FROM LAND AND BACK MORE OVER OPEN WATER AS IT AIMS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS.

I BELIEVE A TROF MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE WORK WEEK WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE AN AFFECT ON DEBBY...BUT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE AND HOW STRONG DEBBY IS AT THAT TIME REMAIN OPEN QUESTIONS.

DAY4/5 FCST HAS BEEN NARROWED DOWN SOME AND IMPLIES A LIKELYHOOD THAT DEBBY COMES ONSHORE SOMEWHERE OVER S.E. FLORIDA FIRDAY EVENING NIGHT...THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE SHE TAKES THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE CONE BUT EVEN SO IF TRENDS PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA SHOULD SIT UP AND PAY ATTENTION. IT IS ALMOST A LOCK DEBBY AFFECTS FLORIDA IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BE IT A DIRECT HIT OR SIDE SWIPE WITH SQUALLS & ROUGH SEAS.

LATEST NCEP MANUAL PROGS DRIFT DEBBY UP ALONG/OFF THE SOUTH ATLANIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
I DON'T HAVE TO MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THIS YET EXCEPT I COULD NOT RULE THAT SCENARIO OUT...DEBBY COULD REMAIN JUST FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE SO THAT ONLY ROUGH SEAS/SWELLS ARE A PROBLEM...OR SHE COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR MUCH MORE.

LATEST MODELS ALL IMPLY AN INCREASING THREAT TO FL AND PERHAPS FURTHER NORTH UP ALONG THE S.E. COAST...NOGAPS IS STILL
OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INTENSITY OF DEBBY AS SHE NEARS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL GREATLY BE DETERMINED ON HOW SHE TANGLES WITH HISPANOLA/CUBA..SHE COULD BE A POTENT HURRICANE OR A MINIMAL CAT 1 DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK.

MY FCST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF OFFICIAL TPC TRACK BUT NOT BY MORE THAN 50-75 MILES.

RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS SHOULD BATTEN DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST...AND RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA AND
THE S.E. COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF DEBBY.

NEXT UPDATE BETWEEN 9 & NOON TUESDAY...DISCUSSION ONLY.