HURRICANE DEBBY
ISSUED: 10:00 A.M. - TUESDAY - 8/22/00

CURRENTLY: BASED ON FIRST FEW VISIBLE SAT PICS IS APPEARS DEBBY IS NOW SLOWLY AND STEADILY PULLING HERSELF TOGETHER. I WOULD EXPECT HER TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY. CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE ASYMMETRIC AT THE MOMENT BUT I EXPECT HER TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER DEVELOPED. CENTER OF DEBBY HAS MADE SOME SOLID NORTHWARD GAIN OVERNIGHT. THE REASON FOR THIS IS BECAUSE WE ARE DEALING WITH A BETTER DEFINED STORM AS OPPOSED TO A LL CENTER BEING PUSHED ALONG BY LOWER LEVEL STEERING. THIS WAS MY THINKING ALL ALONG AND IS WHY I HAD A TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF MOST OTHERS...IT WAS JUST A MATTER OF "WHEN" DEBBY WOULD START TO BE AFFECTED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL STEERING..SHE NOW IS. BASED ON THIS GIVEN CURRENT LOCATION AND MOTION I WOULD EXPECT DEBBY TO PASS OVER SAN JUAN OR MORE LIKELY JUST NORTH BY SAY 30-40 MILES. CAT 1 HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPEED THE NORTHEAST ISLANDS INCLUDING THE U.S. & BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

INTENSITY: LATEST SHIPS IS 82 KTS AND IS ACCEPTED ALTHOUGH MY FCST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER BY 72 HOURS.

NOW THAT I BELIEVE DEBBY WILL CLEAR PR & DOM BY A REASONABLE DISTANCE..AT LEAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OFFSHORE...I FELL MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE FCST OF A 100 MPH HURRICANE BY SOMETIME THURSDAY.   WILL NOW OPEN THE DOOR ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR (CAT 3) HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.  IF CURRENT TRACK THINKING VERIFIES DEBBY WILL HEAD TO THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR DEVELOPMENT.


TRACK: I AM IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH 5AM TPC FCST TRACK **EXECPT** TO BRING IT NORTH BY 75 TO PERHAPS 100 MILES.  THIS WOULD LEAD TO A 72 HOUR POSITION (8AM FRIDAY) **NEAR** 25N/78W. PENDING NEW GLOBAL GUIDANCE LATER TODAY THIS  MAY BE A LITTLE FAR SOUTH & WEST...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THIS IDEA FOR NOW.

LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THROWN A CURVE BALL INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST. NOGAPS/AVN/MRF/CANADIAN ALL NOW ONE WAY OR THE OTHER TAKE DEBBY INTO THE GULF..EITHER THROUGH THE FL KEYS OR BY WAY OF CUBA. EC HAS BEEN DOING A TERRIBLE JOB AND MAKES IT HARD TO EVEN TRACK DEBBY....UKMET IS SIMILAR TO LAST 2 RUNS WITH RECURVATURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMA  ISLANDS...WELL OFFSHORE FL THEN LIFTS DEBBY NORTH TO 75 MILES EAST OF HATTERAS..FOR THE SECOND RUN IN A ROW... THE UKMET THEN DRIFTS DEBBY NORTH-NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE VIRGINIA CAPES BY THE WEEKEND AS A HURRICANE. WHILE NOT LIKELY..SOMETHING CLOSE TO THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...I.E. A SLOW OR DRIFTING MOTION IF THE PATTERN BECOMES "BLOCKY"...AND STEERING BECOMES WEAK....BUT THAT IS A QUESTION FOR ANOTHER DAY.

MY CURRENT THINKING AS OF NOW IS THE THREAT IS HIGHEST FOR FLORIDA. AT THIS TIME I AM NOT BUYING INTO THE GULF SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH I SEE HOW THE MODELS ARE GETTING THERE. BASIC THINKING IS THAT DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN NORTHWARD COMPONENT NEXT DAY OR TWO ON A W.N.W. COURSE...CLEARING THE DR TO THE NORTH...THEN NEARING THE 72HR FCST PSN INDICATED ABOVE. FAST MOTION OF LAST FEW DAYS AND TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SLOW WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY TO 14-18 MPH.

BEYOND THE 72 HR POSITION I'M TAKING A BLEND OF THE UKMET/MRF SOLUTIONS...MEANING THAT THIS WILL EITHER LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST OR SIDE SWIPE IT TO THE EAST....THEN EITHER THREATEN THE S.E. COAST FURTHER NORTH OR REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...

I'M TORN AT THE MOMENT AND I'M LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD A LANDFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT A SCENARIO UP JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BY 50-100 MILES IS RUNNING A CLOSE SECOND.

STAY TUNED.... AS I'VE BEEN SAYING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CAUSE ANXIOUS MOMENTS IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

NEXT SHORT UPDATE AROUND 5PM WITH MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION AND TRACKING MAP BY 9PM.