HURRICANE DEBBY
ISSUED: 9:30 P.M. - TUESDAY - 8/22/00

****POTENTIALLY SERIOUS SITUATION SETTING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA*****
**RESIDENTS FROM THE UPPER KEYS TO THE SC & NC COASTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEBBY**

CURRENTLY: AT 9PM DEBBY WAS LOCATED AT 19.2N/67.0 WEST...MOVING W.N.W. (290) AT 18 MPH...THIS GENERAL TRACK IS FCST
TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL SLOWDOWN IN FORWARD SPEED. DEBBY HAS NOT GOTTEN ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY BUT IS HOLDING HER OWN....I DO EXPECT INTENSIFICATION TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WIND SPEEDS ARE UP AND PRESSURE DOWN BY AS SOON AS THE 11AM WEDNESDAY ADVISORY.  INFLOW/OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD AND CENTER IS UNDER CDO....ALL SYSTEMS SEEM GO FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

INTENSITY: LATEST SHIPS IS 89 KTS AT 72 HOURS.

MY 72 INTENSITY FCST IS 115 MPH....THIS MIGHT BE  CONSERVATIVE...LATEST 12Z GFDL IN NEAR 125 MPH WITH A 935MB
PRESSURE. THE GFDL DID VERY WELL WITH THE INTENSITY FCST FOR ALBERTO.

I DON'T SEE A NEED TO GO HOG WILD JUST YET AND 115 MPH SEEMS REASONABLE AND IS MIDWAY BETWEEN SHIPS AND GFDL. NO MAN OR MODEL IS GOING TO FCST A CAT4 OR CAT 5 HURRICANE 3 DAYS OUT....THEY JUST HAPPEN AND YOU "NOWCAST".  CONDITIONS AHEAD OF DEBBY ARE GOOD...SHE WILL TRAVEL OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATERS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...WATERS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN CHURNED UP BY ANY STORM SO FAR THIS SEASON. CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE **FORECAST** TO BE VERY FAVORABLE. MODELS CAN FORECAST STORMS TO DEEPEN AND WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH CERTAIN AREAS..AND THIS IS A GOOD GUIDE...BUT I'VE NEVER SEEN A FCST FOR A 140-150 MPH HURRICANE IN ADVANCE.

BOTTOM LINE....DEBBY COULD AND LIKELY WILL BECOME A MAJOR CAT 3 (115 MPH) HURRICANE...BUT BEYOND THAT I'M NOT PREPARED TO GO...JUST BE ADVISED A HIGHER INTENSITY IS **POSSIBLE**.


TRACK: THE ATTACHED TRACK MAP Click here: SNONUT's hurricane page REPRESENTS THE BEST FCST TRACK GIVEN THE DATA I HAVE. PLEASE REMEMBER THIS IS A 72 HOUR FCST AND IS SUBJECT TO AT LEAST SOME ERROR BE IT TIMING - INTENSITY AND OR TRACK ITSELF.

FIRST OFF I'LL SAY I'M PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST 5PM TPC TRACK FCST...ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THEIR TRACK WOULD BE
VERY MINOR IF ANY...THEIR 72 HR POSITION VALID 2PM FRIDAY IS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH MY THINKING. MY 72 HOUR FCST IS BASICALLY
AN EXTRAPOLATION AND IN BETWEEN LATEST UKMET/AVN AND GFDL AS PER LATEST TPC PACKAGE. THE UKMET HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY WEST AND AVN/CANADIAN GLOBAL MORE NORTH AND EAST..SO HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF WHAT I BELIEVE TO BE THE BEST MODELS AT THIS TIME. 

I THINK IF THERE IS AN ERROR IN MY 72HR PSN IT WILL BE THAT IT IS TOO FAR TO THE LEFT...I.E. IF ANY FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED...THEY WOULD LIKELY SHIFT THE TRACK MORE OFFSHORE.

THE KEY FACTOR HERE IN THE TRACK OF DEBBY WILL BE WHEN DOES SHE START TO FEEL THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND LESS "DIGGY" WITH ANY EASTERN TROF...AS A RESULT THE STEERING WITH DEBBY MAY SIMPLY BE AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...AND TO THE EAST OF THE "HOT" RIDGE FURTHER WEST...SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN. AS A RESULT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO BE A FAST MOVER...AND THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS...#1 IT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...#2 IT WILL PROLONG THE PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND #3 WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP LONGER.

AS MENTIONED THE 72 HR FCST IS A BLEND OF UKMET/AVN/GFDL....IT IS STILL **NOT 100% CLEAR** WHEN DEBBY WILL START TO FEEL THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...IT COULD BE A LITTLE LATER WHICH WOULD PUSH THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL FURTHER WEST ON THE S.W. COAST
OF FLORIDA...OR A LITTLE LATER WHICH WOULD KEEP THE CENTER JUST OFF SHORE FLORIDA AS IT HEADS NORTH. MY BEST FCST TRACK ATTM IS TO HAVE DEBBY LANDFALL OVER S.E. FLORIDA...THIS MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE TO BE MODIFIED IN FUTURE UPDATES.  

TRACK BEYOND 72 HR PSN IS GENERALLY NORTH UP THE MIDDLE OF THE CONE BUT COULD BE TO THE LEFT EDGE OR RIGHT...A RIGHTWARD
BIAS WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE THREAT TO SC/NC...A LEFTWARD BIAS WOULD GIVE A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING TO THE PARCHED INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ALONG WITH A GOOD WIND EVENT.

I'LL FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THIS FCST AFTER I GET A LOOK AT THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT COMES IN OVERNIGHT...IF TRENDS
HOLD SOME BIGTIME DECISIONS WILL NEED TO BE MADE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA STARTING TOMORROW. 

ONCE AGAIN THIS IS A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS SITUATION AND RESIDENTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...ESPECIALLY FLORIDA...NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE UPDATES.

NEXT DISCUSSION ABOUT 9AM WEDNESDAY....SHORT UPDATE AROUND 5PM....COMPLETE UPDATE WITH TRACK MAP AROUND 9:30 PM.