HURRICANE DEBBY
ISSUED: 9:30 A.M. - WEDNESDAY - 8/23/00

**STILL POTENTIAL SERIOUS SITUATION FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR THE KEYS**


CURRENT: FIRST VISIBLE PICS OF THE DAY SUGGEST THE CENTER IS ON THE S.W. SIDE OF THE MODEST CONVECTION. THUS THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR DEBBY OVERNIGHT OR EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE DR I WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGE IN STRENGTH TODAY. WITH A PRESSURE OF 1005 MBS....DEBBY BARELY QUALIFIES AS A HURRICANE. PRESENT MOTION IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST (280) AT ABOUT 18 MPH. THE CENTER IS NOT FAR OFF THE COAST OF THE DR AND IS POORLY ORGANIZED.

INTENSITY: LATEST 72 HR SHIPS IS 86 KTS.  WILL LEAVE INTENSITY FCST FROM LAST POST ALONE...ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THAT IS ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AT 115 MPH AND LOOK AT IT AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GFDL STILL CONTINUES TO SPIN UP A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE...WHILE NOT ACCEPTED ATTM IT SHOULD NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED.

TRACK: MY TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH. FORWARD MOTION LAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN MORE WEST THAN ANYTHING ELSE AND THUS MY FCST MAP FROM LAST NIGHT IS ALREADY TOO FAR NORTH BY ABOUT 35 MILES...I STILL BELIEVE A MORE W.N.W. TO PERHAPS NW MOTION IS IN THE CARDS DOWN THE ROAD.

00Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH IN A BIG WAY. THE UKMET HAS TAKEN A 5 DAY PSN OFF NJ TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST...TALK ABOUT EXTREMES! CANADIAN GLOBAL IS SIMILAR TO PRIOR RUN AND MORE IN LINE WITH 06Z TPC SUITE...WHICH STILL AIM DEBBY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF FLORIDA. 06Z GFDL HAS DEBBY IN THE UPPER KEYS.

CURRENT TRACK MAP IS BASED ON LATEST GFDL/CANADIAN AND 12Z TPC SUITE. 12Z TPC SUITE IS CLUSTERED ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COAST....AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 06Z PACKAGE. MY FCST IS JUST S.W. OF THIS CLUSTER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD. I HAVE A FEELING THE 00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA MAY HAVE BEEN CORRUPTED. CANADIAN MODEL DID NOT HAVE THAT DATA AND IS SIMILAR TO LAST FEW RUNS. USUALLY THE ADDITION OF SUCH DATA PROVES TO BE AN IMPROVEMENT...IN THIS CASE...AT LEAST FOR NOW IT APPEARS TO HAVE THROWN A WRENCH INTO THE GEARS OF FORECASTING.

AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE I'M NOT MAKING WHOLESALE CHANGES BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THE SWING SEEMS EXTREME AND 
I'D LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IN 12Z GLOBAL RUNS. ALTHOUGH WITH DEBBY MOVING MORE WEST NOW THE MODELS 
*COULD* BE ONTO SOMETHING. HAVE SLOWED DEBBY AND SHIFTED THE 72 HR PSN S.W. BY ABOUT 40-50 MILES. PENDING 12Z GUIDANCE LATER THIS MORNING THIS MAY BE SHIFTED FURTHER LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 75-80 WEST AS DEBBY APPROACHES...I BELIEVE SHE WILL HAVE GAINED ENOUGH NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO BE INFLUENCED BY THIS WEAKNESS.  SO FOR NOW...MY TRACK ALTHOUGH SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH LAST NIGHTS FCST.  SORRY TO BE BRIEF IN THIS SECTION...I'M JUST REAL SHORT ON TIME AND WANTED TO SEND TRACK MAP WITH THIS UPDATE.

AS MENTIONED IN LAST FEW POSTS DEBBY IS GOING TO BE A VERY SLOW MOVER UNDER WEAK STEERING AND IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE MAPS FOR A WHILE TO COME...WITH THIS SLOW MOVEMENT THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME VERY HEAVY...PERHAPS EXCESSIVE
RAINS FOR PARTS OF THE S.E.

NEXT SHORT DISCUSSION AROUND 5PM...MORE DETAILED UPDATE AROUND 9:30 P.M. WITH UPDATED TRACK MAP.