TROPICAL "CLOUD MASS" DEBBY
ISSUED: 4:30 P.M. - WEDNESDAY - 8/23/00

DEBBY FIGHTING TO HANG ON.

I'M NOT SURE WHAT TPC IS GOING TO DO OR SAY WITH 5PM ADVISORY BUT I'VE NOT SEEN MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THAT MAKES ME THINK THIS IS ANYTHING MORE THAN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SURFACE CENTER IS OUT FROM UNDER THE REMAINING "DEEP" CONVECTION AND I USE THE TERM "DEEP" LOOSELY...RECON COULD ONLY FIND A 1010 MB PRESSURE....AND HIGHEST WINDS SEEM TO BE IN SQUALLS WELL EAST OF WHERE THE SURFACE CENTER IS.

SO AGAIN, NOT SURE WHAT TPC IS GOING TO CLASS THIS AS AT 5PM...BUT CLEARLY IT IS A SHADOW OF WHAT IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...AND THATS NOT SAYING MUCH EITHER...I SUSPECT THEY WILL EITHER DOWNGRADE IT TO A DEPRESSION OR KEEP IT A MINIMAL T.S. AS OF THIS HOUR THE SFC CENTER IS ON THE COAST OF HAITI NEAR THE BORDER OF THE DR WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

SINCE I QUESTION THE EXISTENCE OF A "SYSTEM" TO BEGIN WITH I'M NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ON ANY KIND OF TRACK.  IT IS POSSIBLE A NEW CENTER FORMS NEAR OR UNDER THE CONVECTION BUT I'M NOW THINKING THAT IS NOT LIKELY.

THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL SHOULD CONTINUE WEST AND PASS CLOSE TO OR OVER CUBA...IF IT PASSES OVER CUBA IT WOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE...IF IT STAYS JUST NORTH OR DROPS SOUTH SOME REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE DOWN THE LINE... IF THE LL CENTER WERE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT INTO THE S.E. GULF DOWN THE LINE WE COULD SEE SOME ACTION.

IN ANY EVENT ANY THREAT TO FLORIDA IS ELIMINATED UNTIL AND IF SOME REGENERATION GETS UNDERWAY...WHILE I'M NOT TOTALLY WRITING DEBBY OFF...IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SO FAR...ALBERTO HAS BEEN THE "EVENT" OF THE SEASON AND EVERYTHING ELSE HAS LEFT US TROPIC WATCHERS WANTING.

ON A SIDE NOTE....MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 2-3 DAYS HAS BEEN NOTHING SHORT OF POOR.