TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
ISSUED: THURSDAY - 8/24/00 - 9:00 A.M.

OK, I'M IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TPC THIS MORNING THAN I WAS AT 5PM YESTERDAY. POSITION FIXES OVERNIGHT FROM RECON AS
WELL AS VISIBLE PICS THIS MORNING INDICATE DEBBY...OR THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL CALLED DEBBY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND IS NOW
OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA. THE GENERAL MOTION TODAY WILL BE WEST...WHICH WILL KEEP THE CENTER EITHER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA OR OUT OVER WATER SOUTH OF CUBA.

LATEST VISIBLE PICS ALSO SHOW A "BURST" OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...MAKE NO MISTAKE...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LONG WAY TO GO TO GET BACK TO HURRICANE STATUS...WE'RE MORE OR LESS STARTING FROM SCRATCH...NOT COMPLETELY...BUT MORE OR LESS. IN ANY EVENT THERE IS CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.

THE THREAT FOR FLORIDA AND THE KEYS IS OVER...FORGET IT IN FLORIDA. QUESTION NOW IS...DOES DEBBY CONTINUE WEST AND PULL HER ACT TOGETHER? I'D GIVE HER A 50/50 CHANCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE BURST CURRENTLY UNDERWAY.  BUT IT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS BACK...IF SHE INDEED MAKES IT.

DOWN THE ROAD...IF SHE DOES MAKE IT...SHE WILL EMERGE IN THE S.E. GULF SOUTH OF CUBA WITH VERY WARM WATER WITH WHAT ARE 
**FORECAST** TO BE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT....NEXT QUESTION IS DOES SHE GO W.N.W. OR TURN MORE N.W.?

UNTIL I SEE THAT WE HAVE A VIABLE SYSTEM I'M NOT GOING TO COMMENT ON A TRACK POSSIBILITY...SUFFICE TO SAY IF DEBBY MAKE IT
INTO THE S.E. GULF INTACT IT WILL BE LANDLOCKED AND SOMEBODY WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH HER.

STAY TUNED!

IF NECESSARY WILL ISSUE UPDATE AROUND 10:00 P.M.