TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
ISSUED: 10:30 A.M. - SUNDAY - 9/3/00

ERNESTO BARELY HANGING ON AND I HAVE DOUBT BASED ON LATEST DATA IF HE IS REALLY STILL A TROPICAL STORM. BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE PICS THE CENTER IS TOTALLY SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION WITH THE LL CENTER NEAR 19.5/57.5 WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SOME 60-100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LL CENTER. IF ERNESTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM IT IS A VERY LOOSE CLASSIFICATION.

BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE POSITION FIX THE CENTER HAS MOVED MORE WEST THAN NORTH FROM THE 5AM POSITION.

INTENSITY: REFERENCE MY DISCUSSION FROM YESTERDAY...I STILL BELIEVE ERNESTO WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.....I'D DO IT NOW BUT TPC MY HAVE OTHER IDEAS. IF THE LL SWIRL CAN HANG ON FOR ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS CONDITIONS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH. IT IS POSSIBLE ERNESTO WILL HAVE DEGENERATED TO MUCH BY THEN SUCH THAT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT POSSIBLE....I'D LEAN MORE TOWARD THE LATER SOLUTION.

TRACK: WHILE THE **EXACT** TRACK WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TYPE OF SYSTEM WE END UP TRACKING..LL SWIRL OR SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM...IF THAT HAPPENS DOWN THE ROAD....ANY POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE EAST COAST THAT WAS THERE IS ALL BUT GONE AS A DEEP TROF DIGS IN ALONG/OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY IT WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH WHATEVER ERNESTO IS IN 48 HOURS AND CARRY IT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. SO EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSITY FCST IS A TOUGH CALL BEING DOES IT HANG ON OR DOES IT FIZZLE...THERE IS NO THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.

ELSEWHERE....IT IS TIME TO FACE THE FACTS. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST THIS SEASON IT WILL HAVE TO COME FROM A SYSTEM THAT FORMS "CLOSE IN"..THAT BEING BETWEEN 15-25 NORTH AND 55-65 WEST....THE PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS JUST TOO HOSTILE FOR A CLASSIC CAPE VERDE SYSTEM THIS YEAR. 

I DON'T SEE MUCH OUT THERE THIS MORNING THAT OFFERS ANY THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK AHEAD....AND THAT TAKES US TO "PEAK DAY" AND FROM THAT POINT ON WE START GOING DOWN THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CURVE.

IN SUMMARY WE'VE GOT ABOUT 5 WEEKS LEFT OF THE SEASON BEFORE CLIMO STARTS TO KICK IN AND REALLY SHUT THINGS DOWN.  THE THREAT OF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AFFECTING THE UNITED STATES GULF OR EAST COAST TO ME AT LEAST SEEMS QUITE LOW THROUGH THE 15TH. OF SEPTEMBER...BEYOND THAT WE'LL SEE BUT IF PERSISTENCE HAS ANYTHING TO SAY THIS COULD GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE MORE QUIET SEASONS WE'VE SEEN IN A LONG TIME.

STILL....IT ONLY TAKES ONE STORM TO MAKE A SEASON MEMORABLE AND I'M NOT READY TO RULE THAT OUT JUST YET...BUT THE ODDS LOOK ALOT LOWER THAN THEY DID A FEW WEEKS AGO. LATEST MRF...IF CORRECT...WOULD OFFER A BETTER PATTERN STARTING AROUND 9/10 OR SO....BUT WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS.