TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
SATURDAY - 9/16/00 - 9:00 A.M.

HURRICANE FLORENCE: FLORENCE HAS PRETTY MUCH BEHAVED AS I FORECASTED A FEW DAYS BACK. SHE DID MAKE IT BACK TO MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THAT INTENSITY ANOTHER 12 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AND GOING EXTRATROPICAL. FLORENCE PASSED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF BERMUDA OVERNIGHT AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AFFECTED THE ISLAND. FLORENCE IS NOW RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY BUT ROUGH SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO SUBSIDE.

T.D. #12: SAD....VERY SAD. YOU CAN SAY ALL YOU WANT ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.  FEELING HERE IS CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT OVER THAT PART OF THE BASIN. BEST FORECAST I CAN OFFER NOW IS DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE WEST...OR WESTNORTHWEST NEXT 2-3 DAYS..PERHAPS NORTH OF OFFICIAL TPC TRACK. THAT WOULD TAKE IT JUST SOUTH OR OVER THE HISPANOLA...GFDL IS EVEN NORTH OF THAT AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AT THIS POINT.

I THINK THE TPC INTENSITY FCST IS OVER ZEALOUS AND PERHAPS THIS MAKES IT TO LOW END T.S. STATUS WITHIN NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  AT THIS POINT I DO NOT CONSIDER THIS MUCH OF A THREAT TO ANY LAND AREA OTHER THAN FOR PERHAPS SOME HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS, SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS HISPANOLA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS IF DEPRESSION CAN HOLD TOGETHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT TO BE HONEST I HAVE DOUBT SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE THAT LONG. WE'LL SEE BUT FOR NOW IT IS NOT A CONCERN TO THE UNITED STATES.

T.S. GORDON:

BASED ON LAST FEW IR PICS CONVECTION IS TRYING TO WRAP CLOSER TO CENTER RATHER THAN BEING LARGELY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER....NO VIS PICS YET THIS MORNING BUT FIRST ONES SHOULD BE IN BEFORE I FINISH THIS POST. LATEST IR PIC ALSO SUGGESTS A "WARM SPOT" NEAR THE CENTER THAT SUGGESTS AN EYE TYPE FEATURE MAY BE FORMING.  BASED ON THIS I WOULD EXPECT GORDON TO BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON .... THIS PENDING RECON DATA....BUT BASED ON WHAT I'M SEEING IT LOOKS LIKE GORDON IS CLOSE TO MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY.  NO NEW RECON DATA ALTHOUGH THAT IS ALSO DUE IN SHORTLY.

INITIAL POSITION: BASED ON LATEST IR PICS IF "WARM SPOT" ON PIC IS REALLY AN EYE TYPE FEATURE IT IS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N/85.8W....THIS IS SOMEWHAT S.E. OR E.S.E. OF 8AM TPC LOCATION. AGAIN RECON WILL CONFIRM THIS SHORTLY.

MOTION: TPC HAS INITIAL MOTION AS N.N.E. (025) AT 8 KTS. I'LL HAVE TO TAKE ISSUE WITH THIS AS I BELIEVE THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE N.E. OR CLOSER TO 035/045 AT 10 KTS...THIS BASED ON LOCATION OF CURRENT "WARM SPOT" ON IR PIC. AGAIN THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED BY RECON.

TRACK-INTENSITY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE I BELIEVE GORDON IS NEARING MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY...AND WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED WITHIN THE NEXT 2-8 HOURS. AS FOR INTENSITY FORECAST....A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL. I BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND THEN BE IMPACTED SOMEWHAT BY WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BASED ON CURRENT IR SATELLITE DATA WITH CONVECTION TRYING TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED WARM SPOT I BELIEVE WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A CAT 2 (96-110 MPH) HURRICANE BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.  WATER TEMPS ARE VERY WARM AND CONDITIONS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE FAVORABLE. SINCE CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE BEYOND 24 HOURS I CAN'T REALLY SAY I SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A CAT 2 STORM. SO, I'M  PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH 5AM TPC INTENSITY FCST BUT AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT THEY MAY BE A TAD LOW. LATEST 12Z SHIPS HAS PEAK INTENSITY AT 80 KTS AT LANDFALL...PERHAPS A TAD LOW BUT IT IN THE BALLPARK.  BOTTOM LINE...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE HAVE A LOW END CAT 2 (96-100 MPH) HURRICANE AT TIME OF LANDFALL.


LATEST DATA FROM CIMMS SHOWS A DECENT ANTICYCLONE ALOFT OVER GORDON WITH A 100-300 MB WEST TO EAST WIND MAX FURTHER NORTH JUST SOUTH OF 30N CUTTING FROM JUST SOUTH OF LA TO SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE. THE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STREAK OF WINDS NEAR THE BASE OF A RATHER DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROF IS ALSO QUITE DRY. BASED ON THIS AND OTHER FACTORS I BELIEVE THE 5AM TPC TRACK IS TOO FAR NORTH AND MY TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK. BASED ON DATA I'VE SEEN THIS MORNING I BELIEVE WE ARE LOOKING AT LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CEDAR KEY ON THE NORTH END OF THE RANGE...AND FORT MYERS ON THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE RANGE. LET ME SAY OFF THE BAT.  I'M BY FAR GOING AGAINST MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z TPC SUITE OF TROPICAL MODELS...BUT THAT IS THE WAY I SEE IT NOW. MY FCST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF ALL AVAIL GUIDANCE...WHICH TAKE GORDEN INLAND OVER THE FL PANHANDLE OR THE UPPER WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. NEXT S/W DIVING INTO THE MEAN EAST COAST TROF POSITION I BELIEVE WILL BE SLOWER  AND NOT AFFECT GORDEN AS SOON AS MODELS SEEM TO THINK IT WILL. I MAY HAVE TO EAT SOME CROW AFTER 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE RUN AND I'LL ADDRESS THAT LATER TODAY.....BUT FOR NOW A CEDAR KEY TO FORT MYERS LANDFALL SEEMS MOST LIKELY IN MY OPINION.

EFFECTS: WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.  ASSUMING AT 95-100 MPH HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...SURGE COULD RUN AS HIGH AS 7-10 FEET DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCATION... SOME OF THE HARBORS/BAYS ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA ARE VERY PRONE TO SURGE. RAINFALL OF 10 TO LOCALLY 15" IS ALSO LIKELY AS GORDON IS NOT A FAST MOVER. THIS ALONG WITH T.S./HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. LOOKS LIKE A NASTY TIME OF IT ON THE FL WEST COAST WITHIN 36 HOURS.  REMEMBER ... CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE CENTER CROSSES COAST...SO PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE UPDATES AS LANDFALL LOCATION IS REFINED.

FINAL THOUGHTS: FIRST 2 VIS PICS OF THAT DAY HAVE ARRIVED AND THEY MORE OR LESS SUPPORT IR DATA MENTIONED ABOVE.  CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AROUND THE CENTER (23.5/86.0) AND GORDON IS CLOSING IN ON MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS. THEY ALSO SHOW THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING GORDON ... THIS IS MAKING FOR A VERY ASYMMETRIC CYCLONE AND MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION DOWN THE ROAD.  WILL STILL HANG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CAT 2 AS A HIGH END OPTION FOR INTENSITY. I'M VERY COMFORTABLE IT WILL NOT GET HIGHER THAN THAT.

RECON FLIGHT HAS ENTERED GORDON OVER NW QUAD AND FOUND 41 KTS IN N.W. QUAD (BY FAR THE WEAKER QUAD) AND A PRESSURE OF 993 MBS. I'M ASSUMING THEY WILL FIND HIGHER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SIDE AND GORDON WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER.

BEYOND THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS....IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT HAPPENS TO GORDEN AS HE CROSSES FL...AND WHERE HE CROSSES FLORIDA FOR THAT MATTER...THE OPTIONS RANGE FROM AN E.N.. PASSAGE ACROSS FL AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC...OR A BEND MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR N.E. TO HEAD TO THE PIEDMONT. I'D HAVE TO LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION AND SOME HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE UP THE ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND PERHAPS...JUST PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK. 

PLEASE CHECK THE NORTHEAST WEATHER BOARD AND UPDATES BY PTRAVEL ON THAT POSSIBILITY.

I WILL UPDATE AGAIN (SHORT UPDATE) ABOUT 4PM AND ANOTHER MORE DETAILED UPDATE ABOUT 11:30 PM.

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.