SHORT UPDATE ON GORDON
SATURDAY - 1:00 P.M. - 9/16/00

BASED ON SATELLITE PICS OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING IT IS CLEAR GORDEN IS IN INTENSIFICATION MODE.  I BELIEVE GORDEN WILL BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BY 5PM ADVISORY.

SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE CDO FORMING AND OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED DURING THE MORNING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE AND GORDEN IS NOW MORE SYMENTRIC. STILL BELIEVE LOW END CAT 2 (95-100 MPH) IS POSSILBE BY LANDFALL TIME.

RESIDENTS ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE PROGRESS OF GORDEN AND IT WILL BE HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

WILL ISSUE ANOTHER SHORT UPDATE AROUND 4PM AND NARROW POTENTIAL LANDFALL ZONE. BASED ON DATA OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS MY PRELIMINARY THINKING (AND I WILL CONFIRM THIS AT 4PM) IS GORDEN WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF TAMPA .... THAT NARROWS DOWN PROJECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING (CEDAR KEY TO FT. MYERS) NO CHANGE TO MY FCST REASONING PRESENTED EARLIER THIS MORNING.

I STILL BELIEVE 11AM TPC FCST IS TOO FAR TO THE LEFT.

MOTION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS APPEARS TO BE N.E. (040/045) AT ABOUT 7 MPH.

RAINFALL ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER COULD BE IN THE 10 TO LOCAL 15" RANGE. 

SURGE COULD BE IN THE 7-10' RANGE DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST AND THIS ASSUMES A HIGH CAT 1 OR LOW CAT 2 HURRICANE AT TIME OF LANDFALL. PLEASE REMEMBER SURGE WILL BE AT A MAXIMUM NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THAT COAST. A 7-10' SURGE CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO SAY THE LEAST.

12Z AVN HAS HAD A SPASM AND NOW TAKES GORDEN TOWARD TEXAS ... THIS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. 12Z CANADIAN BOTH GLOBAL AND REGIONAL ARE TOO SLOW AND SLIGHTLY TOO FAR WEST. 18Z TPC PACKAGE NOT YET AVAIL NOR IS 12Z UKMET.

MORE AROUND 4PM.

ON A SIDE NOT: T.D. #12 HAS BEEN DISSIPATED INTO AN OPEN WAVE....OH WHAT A SURPRISE! WHAT A SHOCK! HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN?