TROPICAL STORM - SOON TO BE HURRICANE GORDON
4:15 PM - SATURDAY - SEPTEMBER 16, 2000

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM EARLIER TODAY. 

GORDEN CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER & BETTER ON SATELLITE PICS AND WILL LIKELY BE A HURRICANE BY 5PM.

18Z TROPICAL MODELS ARE ALL LEFT OF MY FCST TRACK...THEY SPRAY THE COAST FROM NEAR MOBILE ON THE LEFT TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON THE RIGHT. TRACK MAP IS AVAIL ON WEBSITE...OR IT WILL BE SHORTLY.

I WILL STILL FOCUS 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF TAMPA FOR POTENTIAL LANDFALL....MORE LIKELY FROM TAMPA NORTH - THAN TAMPA SOUTH.

MOTION TODAY HAS BEEN N.E. (035/040) AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 8-12 HOURS...S/W MOVING EAST FROM WESTERN GULF & 
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD TURN GORDEN MORE N.N.E. BY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING IT IN 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF TAMPA...AGAIN
MORE LIKELY FROM TAMPA NORTH THAN TAMPA SOUTH. 

BEYOND THAT IT SHOULD HEAD INTO S.E. GEORGIA...THEN UP ACROSS EASTERN 1/3RD OF S.C....THEN OFF THE COAST BETWEEN HATTERS AND NORFOLK AS IT HEADS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. GORDEN WILL WEAKEN TO T.S. STATUS OVER S.E. GEORGIA AND EMERGE OFF THE COAST AS A WEAK T.S. OR DEPRESSION AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE S.E. PIEDMONT ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF GORDEN.

STILL BELIEVE LOW END CAT 2 (95-100 MPH) IS POSSIBLE BY LANDFALL.

REFERENCE EARLIER POSTS FOR RAINFALL AMTS/STORM SURGE DATA.

I WILL UPDATE AGAIN AROUND 10PM WITH TRACK MAP.