HURRICANE GORDEN
10:30 P.M. - SATURDAY - 9/16/00

WILL BE MAKING SOME MINOR TRACK CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE GOING UP AT 11PM FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST....MOST LIKELY IN THE AREA FROM NEAR SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTH TO THE SPRING HILL AREA IN HERNANDO COUNTY. PLEASE CONSULT 11PM TPC ADVISORY FOR EXACT PLACEMENT OF HURRICANE WARNINGS.

LATEST IR SAT PICS SUGGEST GORDEN IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26 NORTH AND 85.5 WEST.   FORWARD MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE N.N.E. (025-030) AT 12-14 MPH.

GORDEN HAS A WELL DEVELOPED CDO WITH LATEST RECON REPORT OF A 987 MB PRESSURE AND MAX FLT LEVEL WIND OF 79KTS.  THIS MAKES GORDEN A CAT 1 HURRICANE.

INTENSITY FCST: CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE AND A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO SAY 85 MPH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AT THIS POINT I AM NOW LEANING AWAY FROM GORDEN BREAKING INTO THE CAT 2 RANGE...AND WOULD EXPECT A 75-85 MPH HURRICANE AT TIME OF LANDFALL TOMORROW MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMMS DATA SHOW DIGGING S/W TROF MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF. THIS S/W CONTINUES TO DIG AND HAS IMPARTED A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO GORDEN. EXPECT A GENERAL NNE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AS GORDEN IS AFFECTED BY SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING S/W.

TRACK: BASED ON SHORT TERM MOTION OF N.N.E. AND IMPRESSIVE S/W APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WOULD EXPECT GORDEN TO CONTINUE ON THIS N.N.E. MOTION TOWARD AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PINEY PT. IN TAYLOR COUNTY AND YANKEETOWN IN LEVY COUNTY..THIS IS A SWATH OF ABOUT 80 MILES AND I'LL NARROW THIS DOWN FURTHER TOMORROW...THIS IS AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF MY EARLIER THINKING.

TRACK MAP AVAIL ON WEBSITE SHORTLY.

A STORM SURGE OF 5-7' IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF LANDFALL.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 15" ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES.

TO REPEAT...HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE POSTED BY TPC AT 11PM.
LANDFALL FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW BETWEEN PINEY POINT AND YANKEETOWN.

IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE PLEASE EVACUATE.

PLEASE CHECK THE NORTHEAST WEATHER BOARD AND UPDATES BY PTRAVEL TOMORROW FOR MORE INTO ON HOW/IF GORDEN AFFECTS
WEATHER IN NYC/METRO AREA.

I WILL UPDATE AGAIN ABOUT 10:30 A.M. SUNDAY

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.