HURRICANE GORDON
9:00 A.M. - SUNDAY - 9/17/00

WILL MAKE THIS SHORT SINCE I HAVE VERY LITTLE TO ADD FROM PRIOR POSTS.

INTENSITY: GORDON HAS PEAKED AND NO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  IF ANYTHING BASED ON LATEST VAPOR & IR/VIS PICS GORDON COULD WEAKEN SOME PRIOR TO LANDFALL. GORDON IS NOW IMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH S/W TROF TO THE WEST. DRY/COOL AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO CHOKE THE CYCLONE. SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND AT MOST GORDON WILL BE A MINIMAL
HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. TO BE HONEST I THINK IT WILL BE MORE LIKE A HIGH END T.S. AND I SERIOUSLY DOUBT ANY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE FELT ON LAND.

TRACK: LITTLE TO ADD TO POST FROM LAST NIGHT....WILL NARROW LANDFALL ZONE TO BETWEEN HORSESHOE POINT AND YANKEETOWN BY AROUND 5PM TODAY...OR ABOUT 100-125 MILES UP THE COAST FROM TAMPA. GORDON IS NOW MOVING N.E. AS IT IS DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN A S.W. STEERING FLOW.

EFFECTS: SURGE OF 5-7' NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. HIGH TIDES IN THIS AREA ARE VERY
CLOSE TO TIME OF PROJECTED LANDFALL. THE AREA FROM NEAR SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTH TO NEAR CRYSTAL RIVER SEEM MOST PRONE
FOR HIGHEST SURGE.

WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH WINDS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER END OF T.S. CLASS....A FEW **GUSTS** COULD NEAR HURRICANE FORCE. HIGHEST WINDS BY FAR WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSS..THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE IS GETTING ITS MOISTURE CHOKED OFF BY THE DRY AIR TO THE N.W. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 7-10" ARE LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK.

ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AND WATCH BOXES HAVE BEEN POSTED. HURRICANE & T.S. WARNINGS ARE ALSO POSTED...PLEASE CHECK NWS STATEMENTS IN YOUR LOCAL AREA.

TRACK MAP IS AVAIL ON WEBSITE AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE ONE ISSUED LAST NIGHT.

HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD N.E. TODAY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO/TOWARD SOUTHERN GA AND S.C. LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

ALL IN ALL...THIS IS GOING TO BE A WINDY/WET DAY ACROSS NORTH FL SPREADING N.E. LATER. THIS (ONCE AGAIN) COULD HAVE BEEN SO MUCH WORSE...IF GORDON HAD REACHED CAT 2 INTENSITY AND HELD IT UNTIL LANDFALL IN THIS AREA AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE THE SURGE FLOODING COULD HAVE BEEN DOUBLE OF WHAT IT WILL BE. IN ADDITION GORDON WILL BE HITTING A LOW END POPULATION CENTER WITH NO MAJOR METRO AREA FEELING THE FULL EFFECTS.

WILL ISSUE LAST UPDATE AROUND 5PM TODAY.

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.