T.S. HELENE & T.D. #13
ISSUED: 9:00 P.M. - THURSDAY - SEPTEMBER 21, 2000

T.S. HELENE:

I'LL KEEP THIS BRIEF SINCE IT IS MORE OR LESS A REPEAT OF GORDON ONLY MORE N.W. OF GORDON TRACK.


I EXPECT NO INCREASE IN INTENSITY BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL. THE OUTFLOW...AS WAS THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING...ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS EXTREMELY WELL ESTABLISHED. OUTFLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE IS NONE EXISTENT DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE CENTER WAS DISPLACED TO THE LEFT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 10-12 HOURS BEFORE LAND FALL.

A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT (360-010) WITH A GRADUAL BEND MORE N.E. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST BETWEEN FORT WALTON BEACH AND PANAMA CITY BEACH BETWEEN 7AM & 9AM FRIDAY.

LOCATIONS TO THE LEFT OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES WILL HAVE AN OFFSHORE WIND ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 MPH WITH SOME SHOWERS. ALL OF THE "WEATHER" HAS BEEN PUSHED EAST OF THE LL CENTER SO LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES....SAY FROM FORT WALTON BEACH EAST TO TAYLOR COUNTY WILL HAVE THE HEAVY SQUALLS, STRONGEST WINDS AND SURGE.

SURGE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 FEET IS LIKELY TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES...WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT LANDFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5-7" ARE LIKELY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK.  THIS WILL SPREAD A MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR S.E.....GA/SC.

AFTER LANDFALL THE TRACK OF THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL HEAD TO THE UPSTATE OF SC THEN E.N.E. FROM THERE OUT TO SEA AS IT MERGES WITH AN FRONT TO THE NORTH.

BOTTOM LINE....A WINDY, WET PERIOD LIES AHEAD FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE S.E. CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF GORDEN LAST WEEKEND. HELENE WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL SO NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE INTERIOR 
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AS FOR T.D.#13...CONDITIONS SEEM FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN INTENSITY. IT IS NOW ALL BUT CERTAIN THIS SYSTEM WILL *GRADUALLY* RECURVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC SO AS NOT TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS OR THE UNITED STATES.

IN SUMMARY...WE ARE RACKING UP THE USE OF NAMES THIS SEASON .. AND WE'VE HAD DEPRESSIONS COMING OUT THE WAZOO...SO IN RETROSPECT THE SEASON IS GOING TO GO DOWN WITH A NORMAL NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS....PERHAPS EVEN WITH A NORMAL NUMBER OF HURRICANES BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE..BUT THE SEASON SURE IS LEAVING ME WANTING MORE. 

I'LL UPDATE HELENE TOMORROW MORNING IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT NEED BE SAID...OTHERWISE WE'LL WATCH T.D. #13 OVER THE WEEKEND AND SEE HOW THAT DOES...BUT AGAIN I DO NOT EXPECT ANY EFFECT ON THE ISLANDS OR THE UNITED STATES. 

HO-HUM

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.