TROPICAL DISCUSSION
FRIDAY - SEPTEMBER 22, 2000 -7AM

T.S. HELENE:

THE CENTER OF HELENE IS SPLASHING ASHORE NEAR PENSACOLA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE N.N.E. THEN N.E. INLAND TODAY. ALL THE
"WEATHER" IS EAST OF THE CENTER WITH SOME SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL AS CENTER HEADS FOR THE UPSTATE OF SC THEN NE/E.N.E. FROM THERE AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 
LOCALLY 5" ARE LIKELY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF HELENE. SURGE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN 3'. SINCE THE LL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE LL FLOW..HENCE IT IS COMING IN FURTHER LEFT THAN I THOUGHT LAST NIGHT. NOT THAT IT WILL MAKE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER SINCE THERE IS REALLY NO WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER TO BEGIN WITH.

ISAAC FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC:

AS EXPECTED T.D. #13 CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AS IT HEADS NORTH OF DUE WEST. IT LOOKS QUITE WELL ON FIRST VIS PIC AND IR PICS LOOK GOOD ALSO. ISAAC WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTH OF DUE WEST MOTION NEXT 72 HOURS WITH A GAIN OF ABOUT A DEGREE IN LATITUDE EVERY 24 HOUR PERIOD.

INTENSITY: A CONTINUED SLOW INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY. AS I MENTIONED IN A POST SEVERAL DAYS BACK CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DOWN THE LINE AND I WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED IF ISAAC BECAME A MAJOR 115 MPH HURRICANE AT SOME POINT DOWN THE ROAD AS IT SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY RECURVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. I THINK AT THE VERY LEAST HE WILL BECOME A RESPECTABLE LOOKING HURRICANE EVEN IF HE FALLS SHORT OF CAT 3 STATUS.

TRACK: THERE IS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO TAKE ISAAC NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND KEEP HIM AS AN OCEAN STORM. NO IMPACT TO THE ISLANDS OR U.S. MAINLAND IS EXPECTED.

FOUR MORE NAMED STORMS TO GO AND WE GET "MICHAEL"...NOW THERE IS SOMETHING TO ROOT FOR. I ONLY GET ONE SHOT EVERY SIX YEARS YA KNOW.

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.