TROPICAL DEPRESSION #7
ISSUED: 7:30 A.M. - SUNDAY - 8/20/00

ACCORDING TO TPC T.D. #7 IS STILL THAT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE IS JUST IN AND THERE IS NO DOUBT IN MY MIND THIS IS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY. TPC HAS BEEN VERY CAUTIONS ABOUT UPGRADING THIS BUT THEY ARE THE BOSS...SO OFFICIALLY IT IS STILL T.D.#7. I'M 100% CERTAIN THIS WILL UPGRADED TO A 45-50 MPH T.S. AT 11AM. FIRST VISIBLE PICTURE CLEARLY SHOWS THE CENTER IS UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...MAYBE NOT 100% CENTRALLY LOCATED UNDER IT...BUT UNDER IT...WHATS MORE CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATING AROUND THE CENTER. ALSO..BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE I BELIEVE CENTER IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT NORTH OF TPC 5AM ADVISORY SO AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED IN THE 11AM ADVISORY...OR THEY MAY SMOOTH IT OUT IN THE INITIAL FORWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL 5AM POSITION IS WHAT IS SHOWN ON TRACK MAP ON WEB SITE.

INTENSITY: LATEST 06Z SHIPS IS NEAR 80 KTS IN 72 HOURS...MY 72 HR INTENSITY FCST IS JUST BELOW THAT..AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 5AM TPC FCST.

TRACK: 06Z TPC GUIDANCE IS NOT ALL THAT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AT 72 HOURS..DEEP BAM IS WELL N.E. OF THE ISLANDS...MEDIUM BAM IS WELL N.W. OF PUERTO RICO...LBAR IS ON S.E. COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND A90E IS A TAD N.E. OF THE N.E. ISLANDS...72HR GFDL IS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE...LATEST 00Z UKMET IS IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 06Z GFDL.

MY FCST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF LAST NIGHT..PERHAPS A SHADE NORTH...BUT THAT FAR OUT IT IS SPLITTING HAIRS... AND IS ABOUT 60-75 MILES TO THE NORTH OF LATEST UKMET/GFDL SOLUTION AT 72 HOURS...AGAIN HAIR SPLITTING.

MY FCST TRACK WOULD PUT THE NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE THEN FCST HURRICANE...HOWEVER A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DEVIATION (60-75 MILES) AND IT WOULD GO RIGHT THROUGH THE N.E. ISLANDS...AND THIS IS POSSIBLE...FCSTS BEYOND 48-72 HOURS CAN HAVE LARGE ERRORS AND ARE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...MY FORECAST TRACK PRESENTED IS BEST FCST GIVEN ALL THE LATEST DATA.

EXPECT WATCHES BE THEY TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE..WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY TPC LATER TODAY FOR PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

DAY 4/DAY 5 TRACK...AGAIN THIS IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE FROM LAST NIGHT....LATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGAIN OFFERS A WIDE SPREAD AFTER 72 HOURS...NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THINGS WITH A TRACK ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA INTO THE S.E. GULF AND GLOBAL CANADIAN SUGGESTING SAFE RECURVATURE JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH A 120 HR POSITION JUST EAST OF THE S.E. BAHAMAS....UKMET IS SIMILAR TO MRF BUT SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AND NOT AS HARD WITH A TURN..WITH A POSITION 100 MILES S.E. OF MIAMI BY SOMETIME FRIDAY...MRF TAKES SYSTEM TO NORTH OF CUBA THEN FORCES A HARD TURN TO
THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE FL AND EAST COAST.

BIG QUESTION..AS IT ALWAYS IS..IS INTERACTION OF UPPER TROF FCST TO BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATER IN THE WEEK. THINKING HERE IS THIS TROF WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THIS SYSTEM AND WILL EVENTUALLY PULL IT N.W. AND NORTH...EXACTLY WHEN IS A SHOT IN THE DARK. I'VE DISCOUNTED THE NOGAPS FOR NOW..CANADIAN I BELIEVE IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM TOO SOON AND I THINK THE MRF SOLUTION IS TO HARD OF A TURN...BEST FCST NOW WOULD BE A BLEND OF UKMET/MRF..WHICH WOULD TRACK THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF DAY4/5 "CONE" FCST....BUT CERTAINLY ANYWHERE IN THE CONE DAY4/5 IS FAIR GAME.

THATS ALL FOR NOW...RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN ISLANDS SHOULD PREPARE FOR EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SOMETIME TUESDAY...BE THEY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THINGS OR A DIRECT HIT. I'M NOT BY ANY MEANS READY TO CALL FOR U.S. LANDFALL
BUT SUSPECT AT THE VERY LEAST THERE MAY BE SOME TENSE MOMENTS AHEAD.

SCHEDULE OF UPDATES AS FOLLOWS:....NEXT UPDATE AROUND 8:00 THIS EVENING....WITH FCST MAP. NEXT DISCUSSION AFTER THAT AROUND 9-10:00 A.M. MONDAY.