TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
ISSUED: 9:15 A.M. - THURSDAY - 8/17/00

A LITTLE TRIVIA FIRST....THIS IS THE DAY IN 1969 THAT HURRICANE CAMILLE STRUCK THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI.

NOW ONTO THE TROPICS AT HAND.

ALBERTO IS NOW ON THE "WEST" LEG OF HIS LOOP...AND WHILE IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS IS HIS FIRST AND ONLY LOOP OR THERE IS ANOTHER...HE IS STILL NO THREAT TO LAND AND IS OF INTEREST ONLY BECAUSE OF HIS LONGEVITY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE A MINIMUM OF 16 DAYS...MEANING HE WILL BE ON THE MAPS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND LIKELY LONGER.

ELSEWHERE:

GULF AND CARIBBEAN...QUIET WITH A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND NO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OR CARIBBEAN NEXT
2-4 DAYS.

WAVE #1 EAST OF THE ISLANDS: THIS IS THE SYSTEM I'VE BEEN INTERESTED IN FOR LAST SEVERAL DAYS. FIRST FEW VIS PICS THIS MORNING LOOK IMPRESSIVE AND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AND STEADILY DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEVELOPMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO DEPRESSION STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST UPPER LEVEL WIND PROGS CONTINUE TO FORECAST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AS FOR EVENTUAL TRACK: NO TPC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUN ON THIS FEATURE AND MRF IS ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON IT AT THE MOMENT. IT TRACKS IN JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THEN NW/N THEN NE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THIS IS CERTAINLY THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AS I POINTED OUT IN AFTERNOON UPDATE YESTERDAY...THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME VERY SUBTLE HINTS OF OTHER POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY LATEST GLOBAL UPPER LEVEL PROGS. UNTIL THIS SYSTEM GETS INITIALIZED BY SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS AND TPC RUNS ITS SUITE OF GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MOST LIKELY SOLUTION OF OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN HATTERAS & BERMUDA.
BUT UNTIL THIS BECOMES LOCKED IN....STAY TUNED....THIS SYSTEM IS WELL WORTH WATCHING ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN ISLANDS.

WAVE #2 IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS HOLDING TOGETHER BUT WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THE ALWAYS OVER ZEALOUS MRF TRACKS THIS SYSTEM ALL THE WAY ACROSS TO AT LEAST THREATEN THE ISLANDS AND A POSSIBLE *THREAT* TO THE U.S.
UNTIL IT GETS GOING I'LL CONSIDER THIS ANOTHER MRF FANTASY FORECAST BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING.

IN THE MEANTIME..THE WAVE EAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL BE THE ATTENTION GETTER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

I'LL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR REST OF TODAY BUT WILL UPDATE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

HAVE A GOOD DAY.