TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
1:45 P.M. - TUESDAY - 9/19/00

AREA TO SOUTH OF CUBA:

AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING I DO NOT EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND THAT REMAINS MY THINKING AT THIS HOUR.  LATEST VISIBLE PICS DO SHOW AT LEAST A MID LEVEL ROTATION...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN THAT. RECON WILL BE THERE SOON TO CONFIRM THAT...BUT SYSTEM LACKS DEEP AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION SYSTEM IS HEADING WEST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER MOVING WESTWARD FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO IT SHOULD TURN NORTH TO CROSS WESTERN CUBA AND HEAD INTO THE EASTERN GULF...THEN PERHAPS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA...OR IT MAY GO FURTHER NORTH ON A PATH SIMILAR TO GORDON.

IN ANY EVENT I DO NOT EXPECT IT TO DEVELOP BUT IT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME TROPICAL TYPE DOWNPOURS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR THE LOWER KEYS THEN UP THE WEST COAST OR OVER FLORIDA.

SYSTEM IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF....

THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING VERY HEALTHY AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND SOME SHIP REPORTS IT IS POSSIBLE RECON FINDS A DEPRESSION IN THAT AREA (GENERAL VICINITY 23N/94W) WHEN IT ARRIVES AROUND 2PM. OUTFLOW LOOKS GOOD ON THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE AND RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO IMPROVE OVER THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 60-72 HOURS SO I WOULD EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

GENERAL STEERING WILL TAKE THIS SYSTEM NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

I DON'T WANT TO GO OVERBOARD AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME UNTIL WE SEE WHAT RECON FINDS...BUT...TO ME THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
ALOT OF POTENTIAL.

RESIDENTS OF THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA COAST NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
POSSIBLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS WITH THIS FEATURE. IF IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IT WOULD MAKE IT TO THE GULF COAST IN 36-60 HOURS.

STAY TUNED.

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.