TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION - THURSDAY - 9/21/00 

T.D. #12:

T.D. #12 **NOW** HAS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP FURTHER. I CALL EM LIKE I SEE EM AND WHILE CONDITIONS LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE NOT BEEN FAVORABLE THEY NOW LOOK FAVORABLE AND ARE FCST TO REMAIN THAT WAY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BASED ON LATEST IR SAT PICS AND UPPER WINDS FROM CIMSS AS WELL AS FCST  DEVELOPMENT OF 200MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM...I THINK TPC NOW SHOULD BE CALLING FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

BASED ON LATEST DATA I WOULD BRING T.D. #12 TO T.S. STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL. IF IT WERE ANY OTHER SEASON OR THIS SYSTEM HAD A BETTER TRACK RECORD I'D FCST STRONG T.S. - LOW END HURRICANE INTENSITY...BUT THIS IS HURRICANE SEASON 2000! 

IN ANY EVENT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A 45-60 MPH T.S. BEFORE LANDFALL. LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST BUT THAT I THINK WILL IMPROVE OVER TIME. CONVECTION ALSO SEEMS CLUSTERED AROUND WHERE THE CENTER IS THOUGHT TO BE. BASED ON THIS AND A FALLING PRESSURE FIELD AROUND THE DEPRESSION I FCST INTENSITY TO A LOW TO MID RANGE TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.

RECON WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AROUND 8AM AND WILL OFFER REAL TIME DATA AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON....BUT I WOULD SUSPECT WINDS COULD GO UP AND PRESSURE DOWN BY THE 11AM TPC PACKAGE. 

TRACK....A N.N.W. TO MORE NORTH MOTION IS LIKELY AND THAT WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN 24-36 HOURS ANYWHERE FROM THE LA/MS BORDER EAST TO THE AL/FL BORDER. WILL REFINE THIS IN FUTURE UPDATES.

SYSTEM TO THE S.S.E. OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS:

LATEST IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED T.W. WITH ASSOCIATED LOW (1007 MB) PRESSURE NEAR 10N/19W MOVING WEST (270) AT AROUND 18 MPH. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IF SATELLITE PRESENTATION PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THIS COULD EASILY BE UPGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AT 11AM.

IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WEST NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AVOID A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT IS KIND OF LATE IN THE SEASON FOR A CAPE VERDE SYSTEM TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS...BUT MAYBE BEING AT 10 NORTH IT HAS A CHANCE TO MAKE IT...ALTHOUGH I WOULD GIVE IT LESS THAN 50/50 ODDS.

WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS BUT AT LEAST IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AND WILL UPDATE AGAIN AROUND 9PM THIS EVENING.

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.