TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
MONDAY - SEPTEMBER 25, 2000 - 7:00 A.M.

HURRICANE ISAAC: THE TEXT IN RED BELOW WAS COPIED AND PASTED FROM MY FRIDAY - 9/22 - 7AM UPDATE. I DID THIS BECAUSE MY THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED. ISAAC HAS GAINED ABOUT ABOUT 1.3 DEGREES PER 24 HOUR PERIOD AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ISAAC BECAME A CAT 3 SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN EXPECTED BUT THE OVERALL INTENSITY IS NO SURPRISE SINCE CONDITIONS WERE RIPE FOR INTENSIFICATION.

AS FOR TRACK: SLOW AND GRADUAL RECURVATURE IS EXPECTED...I'M THINKING ALONG THE LINES OF A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WEST. I'M NOT CERTAIN YET HOW MUCH IF ANY THREAT THIS WILL BE TO BERMUDA...AT THE VERY LEAST IT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY LARGE SWELLS AND ROUGH FOR THAT ISLAND. IT IS NO THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR THE UNITED STATES.

INTENSITY: A VERY SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS FROM LOW CAT 3 TO MID OR EVEN LOW CAT 2. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN AS RECURVATURE TAKES PLACE AND ISAAC COULD ATTAIN CAT 3 INTENSITY FOR ONE LAST TIME AS HE RECURVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.

ISAAC WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTH OF DUE WEST MOTION NEXT 72 HOURS WITH A GAIN OF ABOUT A DEGREE IN LATITUDE EVERY 24 HOUR PERIOD.

INTENSITY: A CONTINUED SLOW INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY. AS I MENTIONED IN A POST SEVERAL DAYS BACK CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DOWN THE LINE AND I WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED IF ISAAC BECAME AT MAJOR 115 MPH HURRICANE AT SOME POINT DOWN THE ROAD AS IT SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY RECURVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. I THINK AT THE VERY LEAST HE WILL BECOME A RESPECTABLE LOOKING HURRICANE EVEN IF HE FALLS SHORT OF CAT 3 STATUS.

TRACK: THERE IS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO TAKE ISAAC NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND KEEP HIM AS AN OCEAN STORM. NO IMPACT TO THE ISLANDS OR U.S. MAINLAND IS EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE: TWO AREA TO WATCH...I'M SHORT ON TIME AND WILL ADDRESS THESE THIS EVENING...THEY ARE:

A TROPICAL WAVE/1012 MB LOW S.S.E. OF THE CAPE VERDES (12N/262) ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT 12-14 MPH.

AND

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

AS FOR THE CAPE VERDE SYSTEM: LATEST MRF TAKES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE ISLANDS ITO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN N ABOUT 7 DAYS AS A MATURE HURRICANE. WHILE THE MRF HAS DONE POORLY TO SAY THE LEAST WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS THIS SEASON THIS SYSTEM NEAR 12/26 DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY GAIN INTENSITY IN THE DAYS AHEAD AND I DON'T THINK IT IS UNREASONABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE MORE WEST THAN ISAAC OR ANY OTHER SYSTEM THIS YEAR. SO, I'M NOT READY TO BUY INTO THE MRF ON EVERY DETAIL OF TRACK AND INTENSITY BUT I AM WILLING TO SAY THAT IT HAS POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS IN ABOUT 7 DAYS. BEYOND THAT THE MRF TAKES IT THOUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. AGAIN, NOT READY TO BUY INTO THAT HOOK-LINE AND SINKER BUT AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ALSO SEEMS REASONABLE ONCE/IF SYSTEM ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN.

I THINK THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A DEPRESSION SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND HEAD MAINLY WEST. I DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT WE SAW WITH ISAAC - BUT A SLOWER TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT.

BOTTOM LINE....IT IS WORTH WATCHING.

DISTURBED AREA IN SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN: ONCE AGAIN THE MRF DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS AREA AND TRACKS IT TOWARD
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/WESTERN CUBA LATER IN THE WEEK....BEYOND THAT TOWARD THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA THEN SLOWLY UP ALONG THE S.E./MID-ATLANTIC COAST BEYOND THAT.

AGAIN, NOT READY TO BUY INTO ALL THOSE DETAILS BUT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS THERE AND THE MRF HAS HAD THIS DEVELOPMENT FOR LAST 3-4 DAYS. CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE ONLY MARGINAL NOW BUT ARE FCST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

SO BOTTOM LINE HERE IS: THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AS WELL. ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD HEAD N.W. TOWARD WESTERN CUBA THEN MORE NORTH - NORTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA. NOT READY TO BUY INTO A TURN UP ALONG THE EAST COAST AT THIS POINT AS THAT IS VERY PREMATURE. SYSTEM *IF* IT DEVELOPS COULD JUST AS EASILY HEAD E.N.E. - N.E. OUT TO SEA AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA. 

LET'S JUST WATCH AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH BOTH THESE SYSTEMS ... BEST CASE IS WE GET THE "J" & "K" STORMS OUT OF THE WAY AND WE'LL BE THAT MUCH CLOSER TO "M".

AND TO REPEAT ISAAC IS NO THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR THE UNITED STATES.

I'LL UPDATE AGAIN ABOUT 10:00 TONIGHT

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.