HURRICANE ISAAC AND TROPICAL STORM JOYCE
ISSUED: WEDNESDAY - 9/27/00 7:00 A.M.

HURRICANE ISAAC:

NO BIG SURPRISES WITH ISAAC THIS MORNING SO I'LL KEEP THIS SHORT. THINKING FROM UPDATE 24 HOURS AGO STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING. ISAAC SHOULD HOLD BETWEEN 90-100 MPH FOR THE NEXT 12-25 HOURS THEN AS RECURVATURE BEGINS AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE HE SHOULD INTENSIFY ONCE AGAIN. HE WILL BE MOVING OVER SOMEWHAT WARMER WATER AND CONDITIONS ALOFT LOOK TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A TIME AND AS SUCH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISAAC PEAK AGAIN IN THE 115 TO 125 MPH RANGE. EVENTUALLY...BEYOND 84-96 HOURS HE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD START TO WEAKEN...BUT THAT IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND BEFORE THAT HE APPEARS POISED TO ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH ONCE AGAIN.

TRACK: LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING HERE AS WELL. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND ISAAC SHOULD RECURVE BETWEEN 56 AND 60 WEST...PASSING SOME 300+ MILES EAST OF BERMUDA ON CLOSEST APPROACH. THIS MEANS A BREEZE AND ROUGH SURF AND SWELLS BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL WATCH FOR A TRACK FURTHER TO THE LEFT THAT COULD GIVE GREATER EFFECTS TO BERMUDA BUT CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE OUTLOOK IS HIGH AND I DO NOT EXPECT ANY SURPRISES.

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE: 

WHILE I DID OK WITH INTENSITY FORECAST OF ISAAC LAST 24 HOURS - JOYCE DID NOT FOLLOW MY LINE OF THINKING.  I HAD FORECASTED A SLOWER STRENGTHENING THAN HAS ACTUALLY OCCURRED. I FORECAST THE OUTFLOW FROM ISAAC TO BE MORE OF A FACTOR...IT WAS NOT AND JOYCE IS NOW A 70 MPH TROPICAL STORM BASED ON LATEST TPC PACKAGE.

INTENSITY: WITH THE DISTANCE BETWEEN ISAAC AND JOYCE CONTINUING TO MORE FURTHER APART AND WARM WATERS AHEAD
OF JOYCE ALONG WITH FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND INFLOW/OUTFLOW ESTABLISHED...CAN'T REALLY ARGUE WITH LATEST 
TPC INTENSITY FCST...THAT BEING JOYCE COULD BE NEARING 100 MPH IN 72 HOURS. THUS A SLOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS THE WAY IT LOOKS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

TRACK: JOYCE HAS BEEN AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY WEST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD GAIN IN LATITUDE EVERY
24 HOUR PERIOD. A GENERAL AVERAGE MOTION OF 275-280 LOOKS GOOD FOR NEXT 72 HOURS AND TPC FCST TO 72 HOURS LOOKS GOOD TO ME. THATS THE EASY PART...WHAT FOLLOWS IS A LOADED QUESTION THIS MORNING.

LATEST 72HR PSN FROM TPC IS ABOUT 550-600 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL ISLANDS. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS OF NOGAPS AND MRF ALL TAKE JOYCE ON A N.W. TRACK PASSING JUST N.E. OF THE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE IT IS NOT AN OPEN AND SHUT CASE.

WHILE I BELIEVE A TREND MORE TO THE W.N.W. OR N.W. IS LIKELY BEYOND 72 HOURS I'M NOT CONVINCED IT WILL BE SHARP ENOUGH 
OR FAST ENOUGH TO SPARE THE ISLANDS SOME EFFECTS. AT THIS POINT I THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE ALLOW FOR THE MORE WNW/NW MOTION INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS EARLIER IN THE SEASON AS THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED SOME OVER THE LAST WEEK OR TWO. BASED ON THIS AND OTHER THINGS I DON'T HAVE TIME TO GET INTO DUE TO LACK OF TIME...MY FCST BEYOND 72 HOURS WOULD BE A TRACK TOWARDS THE N.E. ISLANDS WITH JOYCE PASSING 100-150 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH ST. JOHNS SOMETIME ON MONDAY (10/2). THAT WOULD TAKE JOYCE INTO THE EXTREME N.E. CARIBBEAN ON A WNW OR NW HEADING OR JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CHAIN ON A WNW OR NW HEADING.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MRF UPPER WIND FIELD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN U.S. IS A COMPLETE FLIP-FLOP FROM YESTERDAY AND THIS MODEL HAS BEEN MAKING CHANGES ALMOST DAILY LATELY. I LIKE THE SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY BETTER 
WITH MORE OF A RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND BUILDING OF A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN U.S. THIS IS SUPPORTED MY LATEST GLOBAL CANADIAN/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE NOGAPS.

ASSUMING THIS IDEA IS CORRECT JOYCE COULD BEND MORE WEST INTO THE MEDIUM-LONG RANGE...THE IMPLICATIONS OF THAT ARE WHAT THEY ARE AND I CAN GO NO FURTHER THAN THIS AT THE MOMENT...AS A MATTER OF FACT I'VE ALREADY GONE TO FAR OUT ... MUCH TO FAR TO FCST WITH ANY HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE.

I WILL GO TO 100-150 MILES EITHER SIDE OF ST. JOHNS WITH A MODERATE TO MAYBE EVEN HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE..BUT
BEYOND THAT IS ONLY EDUCATED SPECULATION...SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS A LEAST A CHANCE JOYCE COULD AFFECT THE UNITED  STATES ... I CAN'T SLAM THE DOOR SHUT AND SAY I WILL NOT...BUT WE ARE TALKING 7-9 DAYS AWAY SO CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH.

JOYCE WILL NEED TO GET THOUGH THE "DEAD ZONE" BETWEEN 60 & 70 WEST - SOUTH OF 20 DEGREES....SOMETHING NO OTHER STORM THIS SEASON HAS BEEN ABLE TO DO. AS I SAID ABOVE..CONDITIONS SEEM LESS HOSTILE NOW THAN THEY WERE EARLIER IN THE SEASON BUT JOYCE STILL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO UNDERGO SOME SHEAR IN THAT AREA AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW SHE MAKES IT THROUGH.

I'VE BABBLED ENOUGH...BOTTOM LINE IS THAT JOYCE WILL BE A LONG CAPE VERDE TRACKER AND SHE WILL BE INTERESTING TO 
WATCH. IF YOU LIVE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ISLANDS ... PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO UPDATES NEXT FEW DAYS...A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE U.S. EXISTS DOWN THE ROAD BUT THE DETAILS ARE DAYS AWAY FROM BEING CLEARED UP.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS....

THE MRF HAS BACKED OFF IN BRINGING A TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN....INSTEAD IT NOW TAKES CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND  BRINGS IT NORTHWARD TO DEVELOP PERHAPS MORE OF A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OFF THE S.E. COAST THEN LIFTS IT NORTHWARD. I MENTIONED THIS POSSIBILITY YESTERDAY.

I BELIEVE THE MRF IS OVERDOING THIS DEVELOPMENT...THE GLOBAL CANADIAN HAS A WEAKER TYPE LOW OFF THE S.E. COAST AROUND DAY 4. THIS AREA NEEDS TO BE WATCHED...NOT SO MUCH FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR MORE OF A MID LATITUDE SYSTEM....ANY LOW THAT DOES FORM IN THIS AREA COULD COMBINE WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CRESTED TO THE NORTH TO PRODUCE GALES ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST..ESPECIALLY FROM THE VA TIDEWATER - SOUTH TO FLORIDA.

EVEN WITHOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WINDS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC & S.E. COAST COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING AT HIGH TIDES ESPECIALLY FROM THE OUTER BANKS SOUTH.

REFERENCE THE N.E. WEATHER BOARD AND PTRAVEL UPDATES FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DISCUSSION ON THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IN 
THE DAYS AHEAD.

STAY TUNED....MORE TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.