HURRICANES ISAAC & JOYCE
THURSDAY - 9/28/00 - 7:00 A.M.

ISAAC: NO CHANGE IN THINKING FROM 24 HOURS AGO. ISAAC HAS ATTAINED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN WITH WINDS OF 120 MPH ... ONLY REAL SURPRISE WITH THAT IS HE DID IT ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER THAN EXPECTED....CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO AND I WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF ISAAC PEAKED IN THE 130-135 RANGE.

TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE PACKAGE OF NW TO N TO NE OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS.  ISAAC WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH EAST OF BERMUDA (ON THE ORDER OF 500-600 MILES) SO THAT THE ONLY EFFECT IS ROUGH SURF AND SWELLS.

JOYCE: JOYCE CONTINUES STRAIGHT WEST. JOYCE HAS GAINED ESSENTIALLY NO LATITUDE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT MOTION IS DUE WEST (270) AT 12 MPH AND NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN HEADING OR FORWARD SPEED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. I AM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 5AM TPC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. IF ANYTHING THE 72 HR PSN COULD BE A TAD TOO FAR TO THE LEFT (SOUTH) BUT NOT BY MUCH. THIS PLACES JOYCE WITHIN 350 MILES OF THE CENTRAL ISLANDS AND ABOUT 300 MILES E.N.E. OF BARBADOS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 

INTENSITY: JOYCE REMAINS A VERY SMALL STORM. CDO COVERS ONLY ABOUT 100 MILES FROM N/S - E/W...AND THE OVERALL CIRCULATION ENVELOPE IS ALSO RATHER SMALL. FIRST VIS PIC OF THE DAY WHICH IS JUST IN SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH DECENT OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS COLD (-70/-80) TOPPED CONVECTION BUT SYSTEM IS ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER NEAR THE BETTER OUTFLOW.

SINCE JOYCE IS SO SMALL AND NOT ALL THAT WELL ORGANIZED MY CALL WOULD BE FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY NEXT 24 HOURS ... EITHER UP OR DOWN. DOWN THE ROAD IT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE THAT SHE IS NEAR A 100 MPH HURRICANE WITHIN 72 HOURS....BUT I WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF IT WAS LOWER THAN THAT. IN FACT I WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED IF JOYCE WAS IN THE 75-80 MPH RANGE AT THAT TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF 100 MPH IN 72 HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS MODERATE AT BEST. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IT WILL NOT BE HIGHER THAN 100 MPH.

SO THAT TAKES CARE OF MY THOUGHTS THROUGH 72 HOURS FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY.

OUTLOOK BEYOND 72 HOURS:

UKMET IS ONLY GLOBAL MODEL THAT TAKES JOYCE BODILY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. I OFTEN RELY HIGHLY ON THE UKMET AND USUALLY WHEN I GO AGAINST IT I GET BURNED. IT IS A GOOD PERFORMER WITH ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT I HAVE TO DISAGREE WITH UKMET AND GO WITH THE MAJORITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE GENERAL VCTY OF 55-65 WEST TO ALLOW AT LEAST FOR A W.N.W. TURN BEYOND 72 HOURS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS TO ALLOW A N.W. MOTION BEYOND 84-96 HOURS. LATEST GFDL IS OVER THE EXTREME N.E.  CARIBBEAN IN THE GENERAL VCTY OF ST. CROIX SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. NOGAPS AND MRF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. EC DOES NOT SHOW JOYCE BUT UPPER WINDS FIELDS ON EC ALSO SUPPORT OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON ALL OF THAT I WILL STICK WITH MY FCST FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH A POSITION 100-150 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH OF ST. JOHNS SOMETIME ON MONDAY....LIKELY MONDAY EVENING...THIS GIVES A SWATH OF PASSAGE FROM THE DOMINICA PASSAGE ON THE SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF BARBUDA TO THE NORTH. WITH JOYCE SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM AND NOT LIKELY TO INCREASE GREATLY IN AERIAL COVERAGE WHILE IN THE DEEP TROPICS....THE EXACT PATH IS IMPORTANT AS TO WHO WILL GET WHAT. SO STAY TUNED IN THE DAYS AHEAD TO SEE HOW THIS TRACK PROGRESSES.

IN ANY EVENT..SHE SHOULD BE ON A W.N.W. OR N.W. HEADING AS SHE PASSES NORTH OR SOUTH OF ST. JOHNS AND I REALLY LIKE THE LATEST GFDL PSN OVER THE N.E. CARIBBEAN...I'D GIVE A SWATH FROM 100 MILES SOUTH OF ST. CROIX TO 200 MILES NORTH SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WOULD GIVE A SWATH ANYWHERE FROM THE EXTREME N.E. CARIBBEAN TO ABOUT 200 MILES N.E. OF SAN JUAN....FROM THERE I WOULD AIM IT TOWARDS OR TO THE EAST OF THE S.E. BAHAMA ISLANDS SOMETIME LATER THURSDAY. THATS WHERE WE WILL LEAVE IT TODAY. MOTION FROM THERE WILL DEPEND ON IF/HOW STRONGLY/EXACTLY WHEN/EXACTLY WHERE A TROF DIGS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THOSE DETAILS ARE DAYS AWAY FROM BEING CLEARED UP. SUFFICE TO SAY IT COULD DIG IN FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP JOYCE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST OR BE DELAYED ENOUGH TO BRING HER FURTHER WEST. GUT FEELING NOW IS THAT JOYCE WILL PASS A SAFE ENOUGH DISTANCE OFF THE EAST COAST...BUT THAT IS JUST AN EARLY GUESS.

INTENSITY: ALL OF THE ABOVE ASSUMES JOYCE MAKES IT THROUGH THE "DEAD ZONE" SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60 & 70W.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE INTENSITY EVEN AT 72 HRS IS UNCERTAIN IN MY MIND MUCH LESS 120 HRS. +. IN REALITY THERE IS NO WAY TO TELL HOW STRONG JOYCE WILL BE UPON REACHING THE ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SHE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND LESS CHANCE OF TELLING HOW STRONG SHE WILL BE UPON REACHING THE S.E. BAHAMA AREA. I'M NOT EVEN GOING TO GUESS BUT I THINK THERE IS AMPLE EVIDENCE SHE WILL NOT BE A MAJOR HURRICANE.

ELSEWHERE...LATEST TPC GUIDANCE SPINS UP A DEPRESSION AND EVENTUALLY ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 60-72 HOURS OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND LIFTS IN GENERALLY NORTH TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WHILE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...I THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IS 2+ DAYS AWAY. ANY MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH WILL BE SLOW. THIS AREA IS WORTH WATCHING INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT UPDATE TOMORROW MORNING.
SORRY FOR ANY MISSED TYPOS.

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.