HURRICANES ISAAC & JOYCE AND T.D. #15:
ISSUED: FRIDAY - 9/29/00 - 7:00 A.M.

ISAAC: ISAAC PEAKED AT AN IMPRESSIVE 140 MPH LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. ISAAC IS ON THE NORTH BOUND LEG OF HIS SEAWARD JOURNEY THIS MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY BEND N.E. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HE WILL MAKE HIS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA THIS MORNING PASSING SOME 550 MILES TO THE EAST AND THEN PULL AWAY LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL ONLY VERY GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AS ISAAC MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRA TROPICAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

T.D. # 15: ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE DEPRESSION AT THIS HOUR THE OVERALL CIRCULATION LOOKS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION AND T.D. #15 SHOULD BE ABLE TO ATTAIN T.S. INTENSITY SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN POSSIBLY HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 72 HOURS. I GENERALLY AGREE WITH LATEST TPC INTENSITY FCST. IF I HAD TO ARGUE ABOUT ANYTHING I'D SAY WE COULD HAVE A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS - BUT AT THIS POINT I'M FORECASTING A 75-80 MPH HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.

TRACK: MOTION WILL BE SLOW NEXT 24 HOURS GENERALLY W.N.W. TO N.W....MY TRACK WOULD BE SOMEWHAT RIGHT OF LATEST TPC PACKAGE BUT GENERALLY TOWARD OR THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SOMETIME MONDAY. BEYOND THAT RESIDENTS OF THE GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WESTWARD TO NEW ORLEANS NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A THREAT AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UNLIKE GORDON AND HELENE OF EARLIER THIS MONTH CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE GULF AND THIS SYSTEM **COULD** BECOME A CAT 2 TO **PERHAPS** LOW CAT 3 PRIOR TO ANY LANDFALL.....STAY TUNED. 

JOYCE: JOYCE HAS MOVED STEADILY W.S.W. LAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED SOME 120 MILES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS W.S.W.  MOTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND JOYCE IS NOW AT ABOUT A LOW A LATITUDE AS YOU CAN GET WITH AN ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODELS RUN THE RANGE THIS MORNING WITH LATITUDE SINKING AS LOW AS 8.4 IN 48 HOURS TO POSSIBLY BACK AS FAR NORTH AS 12.0 IN 48 HOURS.

THE TRACK NEXT 12-36-48 HOURS IS KEY TO WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND ... AND TO BE HONEST THE TRACK NEXT 48 HOURS IS GONNA BE TOUGH. IF YOU TAKE SOME OF THE MODELS AT FACE VALUE YOU COULD GET BADLY BURNED. SO HERE GOES.... W.S.W. MOTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT LAST 24 HOURS AND SHOWS NO SIGN OF LESSENING...I DON'T SEE ANY REASON RIGHT NOW WHY IT SHOULD LESSEN. AS A RESULT I THINK JOYCE COULD SINK AS FAR SOUTH AS 9.7 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TRENDING BACK MORE TO THE WEST....THAT IS VERY FAR SOUTH. BOTTOM LINE IS AS MUCH AS I'D LIKE TO GO ALONG WITH THE MORE NORTHERN MODELS THIS MORNING I CAN'T. MY 72 HR FCST PSN IS SOUTH OF TPC AND WOULD BE ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF
GRENADA AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS A CONSIDERABLE SHIFT SOUTH THAN THE EARLIER PROJECTION IN THE VCTY OF ST. JOHNS.

IF THE W.S.W. MOTION DOES NOT REVERSE TO WEST BEYOND 24-36 HOURS THERE IS A CHANCE JOYCE COULD DRIFT INTO THE N.E. COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.  I DO NOT THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS IN THE LOW END OF POSSIBILITIES.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE MRF/NOGAPS AS WELL AS THE GFDL ARE ALL WELL NORTH OF MY TRACK WITH A SHARP TURN TO THE N.W. WITH JOYCE PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE EXTREME N.E. CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE AND FOR NOW AT LEAST HAS BEEN IGNORED.

TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS: I'M NOT EVEN GOING TO TOUCH THAT THIS MORNING. THE TRACK NEXT 48-72 HOURS IS SO TRICKY IT JUST SEEMS FOOLISH TO SPECULATE BEYOND A PERIOD ON WHICH MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH IN TO BEGIN WITH. UNTIL/IF JOYCE TURNS BACK MORE WEST OR W.N.W. IT IS JUST NOT CLEAR WHERE SHE WILL HEAD BEYOND 72 HOURS. LATEST NOGAPS/GFDL AND MRF TAKE HERE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE N.E. ISLANDS THEN TO EAST OF THE S.E. BAHAMA ISLANDS THEN NORTH - THEN NORTHEAST A VERY SAFE DISTANCE OFF THE EAST COAST....WE'LL JUST HAVE TO SEE IF THAT THINKING WORKS OUT.

INTENSITY: ANOTHER GOOD QUESTION. LATEST IR SAT PICS SHOW A RATHER RAGGED LOOKING SYSTEM IN MY OPINION. NO VIS PICS AVAIL YET THIS MORNING. LATEST IR SHOWS ONLY WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW.  I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THE 85 MPH CURRENT INTENSITY FROM TPC....IT LOOKS WEAKER THAN THAT TO ME. WE'LL SEE WHAT VIS PICS SHOW WITHIN THE HOUR. BOTTOM LINE ON INTENSITY ONLY CHANGE I WOULD EXPECT NEXT 24 HOURS WOULD BE DOWNWARD...AT BEST JOYCE WILL HOLD STEADY .... BUT IF THERE IS ANY CHANGE IT WILL BE DOWNWARD.

BEYOND THAT...AGAIN TRACK IS KEY. IF SHE CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH CONDITIONS WILL GET LESS FAVORABLE....IF SHE IS ABLE TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN W.N.W. THEY WILL IMPROVE SOME.  RIGHT NOW ASSUMING MY TRACK FCST IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK SO TO SPEAK WE COULD SEE A 80-90 MPH HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS...THAT COULD EVEN BE GENEROUS.

ALL IN ALL A VERY TOUGH FCST WITH JOYCE NEXT 1-2 DAYS AND THE LONG RANGE FCST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE SHORT RANGE FCST WORKS OUT.

STAY TUNED!

WEEKEND UPDATE SCHEDULE:
SATURDAY BETWEEN 2 AND 3PM
SUNDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.