T.S. JOYCE AND HURRICANE KEITH
ISSUED: SATURDAY - 9/30/00 - 3:00 P.M.

T.S. JOYCE: I HESITATE TO USE THE TERM "TROPICAL STORM" TO REFERENCE JOYCE BUT TPC IS HOLDING IT AT T.S. INTENSITY AS OF
2:00 P.M. - BUT IT IS MORE AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK LL CLOUD SWIRL. JOYCE WILL LIKELY BE OR AT LEAST IN MY OPINION SHOULD BE DECLARED A "WAVE" AS OF 5:00 P.M. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE N.E. COAST OF VENEZUELA NEXT 24 HOURS BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A BREEZE IT WILL HAVE VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AS IT PASSES TOMORROW. ASSUMING THE LL CLOUD SWIRL HOLDS TOGETHER.....I DOUBT IT WILL...IT WOULD PASS NORTH OF TRINIDAD AND SOUTH OF GRENADA IN ABOUT 15-20 HOURS.

THIS WEAKENING COMES AS NO SURPRISE TO ME NOR DOES THE FAR SOUTH TRACK. BOTH THE WEAKENING AND SOUTH TRACK WERE IMPLIED IN MY LAST UPDATE FRIDAY MORNING...EXCEPT I DIDN'T HAVE THE NERVE TO CARRY THEM TO THE EXTREME...BUT I AM NOT SURPRISED BY THIS TURN OF EVENTS AT ALL. THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK GUIDANCE WAS IGNORED AND WISELY SO. AS LATE AS YESTERDAY MORNING I SAW NO LESS THAN THREE FORECASTS FROM INTERNET WEB SITES CALLING FOR JOYCE TO BE A CAT 2 OR CAT 3 AS IT CROSSED THE ISLANDS....THERE WAS NOT ONE SHRED OF EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THOSE STATEMENTS.

CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE NOT FAVORABLE AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE SO NO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT FROM JOYCE IS EXPECTED AND IT WILL JOIN THE OTHER STORMS THIS SEASON THAT ENTERED BUT NEVER CAME OUT OF THE "DEAD ZONE".

LATEST NCEP MANUAL PROGS AS WELL AS THE 00Z MRF AND 12Z NOGPAS CARRY THE REMAINS OF JOYCE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN ABOUT 7 DAYS...THIS IS A FAIRY TALE.

HURRICANE KEITH:

KEITH WILL BE THE POTENTIAL EVENT OF THE SEASON **IF** THINGS UNFOLD THE WAY I THINK THE COULD NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  

I SHOULD HAVE THE 18Z RECON DATA BY THE TIME I FINISH THIS POST ... IF I DO I'LL REFERENCE IT AT THE BOTTOM.

LATEST SAT DATA SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED HURRICANE AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS OF 90 MPH+ IN 5PM UPDATE.  ONLY FACTOR KEEPING KEITH FROM "BOMBING OUT" IS PROXIMITY TO THE MEXICAN COAST...WHICH IS IMPEDING THE INFLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OTHER FACTORS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. OTHERWISE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS GOOD AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

LATEST 12Z AVN AND ITS EXTENSION TAKE KEITH THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN 72 HOURS. NOGAPS STILL PERSISTS IN A WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. NO 18Z TPC GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

TROF FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE A SLOW N.N.W. OR N.W. MOTION OVERNIGHT...AS A RESULT I EXPECT KEITH TO MOVE UP ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN NEXT 1-2 DAYS AND EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL IN 48-60 HOURS...THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF 11AM TPC TRACK PACKAGE. 

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT KEITH IS CURRENTLY NOT MOVING. THEREFORE UNTIL A TREND BECOMES ESTABLISHED ANY "FORECAST" OF MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

BEYOND THIS 72HR TIME RANGE AS I MENTIONED YESTERDAY MORNING RESIDENTS FROM NEW ORLEANS TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KEITH.

CURRENT THINKING IS A TRACK TO THE NORTH THEN GRADUALLY MORE N.N.E OR N.E. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THIS WILL PUT THE AREA FROM THE MS/AL BORDER EAST TO TAMPA UNDER THE GUN...BUT RESIDENTS FROM THE LA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KEITH AS SHOULD RESIDENTS SOUTH OF TAMPA.

THE TRACK NEXT 1-2 DAYS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON EVENTUAL TRACK/THREAT INTO THE GULF. THE ABOVE ASSUMES MY SHORT TERM TRACK IS CORRECT AND A N.N.W. OR N.W. MOTION BEGINS OVERNIGHT. IF FOR SOME REASON A MORE W.N.W. OR SHARPER N.W. TRACK PREVAILED KEITH WOULD BE OVER THE YUCATAN LONGER AND EMERGE FURTHER WEST OVER THE S.W. GULF OF MEXICO. I DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN AS I BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT ON KEITH FROM THE S/W TROF TO THE NORTH.

INTENSITY: PROXIMITY TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP INTENSIFICATION IN CHECK NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOULD KEITH JOG EAST THE INTENSITY COULD INCREASE QUICKLY. I DO NOT EXPECT THAT AND WITH PROXIMITY TO LAND KEITH WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK. IN ADDITION, THE LONGER KEITH SITS AND SPINS IN ONE PLACE UPWELLING COULD BECOME A FACTOR IN INTENSITY IF KEITH SITS IN ONE PLACE FOR TOO LONG.

***18Z RECON HAD 977MB PRESSURE AND MAX FLT LEVEL WIND OF 82 KTS. NORTH OF THE CENTER. DEPENDING ON DEVELOPMENTS NEXT
FEW HOURS INTENSITY COULD BE RAISED IN 5PM ADVISORY.

INTENSITY BEYOND 48 HOURS AND INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE: CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF RIGHT NOW ARE NOT FAVORABLE...SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS THE DID IN GORDON AND HELENE AS THEY MADE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER, CONDITIONS 3-4 DAYS FROM NOW ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE AS CORE OF WESTERLY WINDS IS FCST TO LIFT NORTH AS AN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NORTH WITH KEITH. INTENSITY FCSTS.  EVEN IN THE SHORT RANGE ARE DIFFICULT...SO I DON'T LIKE TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH INTENSITY FCSTS IN THE LONGER RANGE. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT KEITH COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AFTER CLEARING THE YUCATAN IN 48-60 HOURS.

AGAIN THIS ASSUMES CONDITIONS ALOFT EVOLVE AS FCST....IF FOR SOME REASON THE WESTERLIES DON'T LIFT NORTH AS FCST THEN
KEITH COULD COME UNDER SHEARING CONDITIONS BEYOND 72 HOURS.

I DON'T WANT TO START THE HYPE MACHINE GOING BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALLING ON THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.

BUT AGAIN...INTENSITY FORECASTING IS DIFFICULT AND IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO START TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS WITH KEITH.

RESIDENTS OF THE GULF COAST NEED TO MONITOR KEITH CAREFULLY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS....CAN'T STRESS THAT ENOUGH.

LATEST 18Z TPC MODEL PACKAGE JUST ARRIVED AND IT SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A MAJOR HURRICANE TAKING AIM ON THE CENTRAL OR N.E. GULF COAST IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. LATEST SHIPS IS 104 KTS. IN 72 HOURS AND DEPENDING ON HOW UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

NEXT UPDATE ABOUT 9AM SUNDAY.

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.