T.S. JOYCE - AND CAT. 4 KEITH
ISSUED: 9:00 A.M. - SUNDAY - 10/1/00

JOYCE: TPC STILL HAS JOYCE HANGING ON AS A 40 MPH T.S. SO I WILL AT LEAST MENTION HER. SHE LOOKS RAGGED AND DIFFUSE WITH ONLY THE RECENT UPWARD SURGE IN CONVECTION MAKING ME TAKE A SECOND GLANCE. RECON HAD A HARD TIME CLOSING OFF A CIRCULATION BUT FOUND A 34KT FLT LEVEL WIND NORTH OF THE "CENTER". 

AS MENTIONED CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER THE PAST 3-4 HOURS AND HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE "CENTER" SHOULD PASS NORTH OF TOBAGO AND SOUTH OF GRENADA TODAY.

CONDITIONS STILL LOOK POOR TO AT BEST FAIR FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. I AM STILL NOT EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. I THINK TPC FCST IS MUCH TO AGGRESSIVE THROUGH 72 HOURS.

KEITH: WHAT CAN BE SAID OTHER THAN TO "TAKE IN THE BEAUTY ON SATELLITE".

KEITH IS THE CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF A TEXT BOOK HURRICANE. KEITH IS ALSO THE CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF HOW FAST A HURRICANE CAN SPIN UP GIVEN THE RIGHT SET OF SST'S AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS. CONDITIONS LOOKED GOOD FOR KEITH TO DEVELOP 24-36 HOURS AGO...AND INDEED HE DID DEVELOP BUT MUCH FASTER THAN ANYONE WOULD HAVE DARED TO FORECAST. 

THIS JUST UNDERSCORES THE UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY FORECASTING .... JUST IMAGINE IF WE HAD A STORM MOVING TOWARD THE U.S. COAST AS A CAT 1 UNDER FAVORABLE SST AND UPPER WIND CONDITIONS AND THE FCST WAS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AND LANDFALL WITH 12-18 HOURS. PREPARATIONS WOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR A CAT 1 OR 2 HURRICANE...THEN WITH LITTLE WARNING THE HURRICANE WAS 135 MPH....WHICH IS WHAT OPAL COULD HAVE DONE IF IT WAS CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING ITS INTENSITY BURST....THAT'S WHY IT IS SO IMPORTANT TO GET OUT OF PLACES LIKE THE KEYS OR A BARRIER ISLANDS IN ADVANCE OF A HURRICANE, ESPECIALLY IF CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DON'T GET ME WRONG THE INTENSITY OF KEITH IS NOT A TOTAL SURPRISE...THE CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION WAS IMPROVING BY THE HOUR YESTERDAY....BUT NOBODY WAS EXPECTING A 135 MPH HURRICANE 24 HOURS AGO.

ENOUGH OF THAT....

LOOKING AT A WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER THE PAST 16 HOURS IT APPEARS TO ME AS IF KEITH DID A VERY TIGHT LOOP AND IS NOW
DRIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST. THE WESTERN EYEWALL IS JUST NEAR OR ON THE COAST ON THE BORDER OF BELIZE AND MEXICO.

AS I MENTIONED IN MY POST YESTERDAY UNTIL THIS STARTS TO MOVE IN A DEFINITE DIRECTION AND "FORECAST" OF MOTION IS
SUSPECT. LOOKING AT ALL THE LATEST DATA I SEE LITTLE THAT MAKES ME THINK THIS IS GOING ANYWHERE FAST TODAY. I SEE
NOTHING TO PICK IT UP AND HEAD IT IN ANY ONE DIRECTION. LOOKS LIKE A SLOW W.N.W. OR PERHAPS N.W. DRIFT (LESS THAN 5 MPH) FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LASH THE EXTREME NORTH COAST OF BELIZE AND ESPECIALLY THE S.E. COAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH SURGE/WINDS/WAVES NEXT 12-24 HOURS ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL FLOODING RAINS ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND. I CAN'T EVEN IMAGINE WHAT CONDITIONS MUST BE LIKE TO ALONG THE N.E. COAST OF BELIZE THIS MORNING...THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE YUCATAN IN THAT AREA IS HIGHLY UNPOPULATED SO LITTLE "HUMAN" EFFECT IS LIKELY..BUT THE CAPITAL OF THAT MEXICAN STATE...CALDERITAS....WILL LIKELY TAKE IT ON THE CHIN AS THE CENTER WORKS ANY FURTHER WEST. WORST EFFECTS WILL BE NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

TRACK: BASED ON THE NON-NORTHWARD MOTION SO FAR AND THE FACT THAT MOTION LOOKS SLOW AND ERRATIC NEXT 24 HOURS
I HAVE CHANGED MY LINE OF THINKING OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS. RIGHT NOW THINKING I WOULD EXPECT THE CENTER OF KEITH TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OFF THE CENTRAL NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN...NEAR 89 WEST. THIS IS TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL 
TPC TRACK.

TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS: AGAIN TRACK IN THE THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL HAVE A TRACK INTO AND BEYOND THE 72HR TIME FRAME.  ONCE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF IT SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH FOR A WHILE THEN TURN MORE N.N.E. THEN PERHAPS EVENTUALLY N.E. IN TIME. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST BECAUSE ALOT DEPENDS ON WHERE AND WHEN KEITH EMERGES INTO THE GULF...AND HOW FAST THE NEXT S/W TROF BEGINS TO AFFECT IT. RESIDENTS FROM NEW ORLEANS TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEED TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS A LESSER THREAT WEST OF NEW ORLEANS TO THE TEXAS COAST...BUT IF KEITH WERE TO BE MUCH DELAYED IN ENTERING THE GULF AND THE S/W TROF MISSES IT...THEN IT COULD BEND MORE N.W. UPON ENTERING THE GULF. I DON'T THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE BUT AS I SAID UNTIL HE ENTERS THE GULF THIS FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN CLEAR CUT.

INTENSITY: I GUESS THE GOOD NEWS I CAN OFFER THIS MORNING IS THAT THE WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR HAVE SUNK
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF THAN I THOUGHT (OR THE MODELS DID) YESTERDAY....WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAVORABLE TO RAPID REDEVELOPMENT ONCE KEITH ENTERS INTO   THE GULF. IN FACT THEY COULD BE QUITE HOSTILE. AT THIS POINT I WILL STRONGLY HAVE TO BACK AWAY FROM A MAJOR LANDFALLING
HURRICANE ALONG THE GULF COAST BY MID-WEEK. STILL, KEITH IS A THREAT AND NEEDS TO WATCHED.

SHORT TERM INTENSITY: WITH THE CENTER SO CLOSE TO LAND AND NEARLY HALF THE CIRCULATION OVER LAND AND SOME UPWELLING EFFECT COMING INTO PLAY I WOULD EXPECT KEITH TO DIMINISH SOME TODAY...WINDS MAY COME DOWN SOME IN THE 11AM ADVISORY AND MOST CERTAINLY SHOULD COME DOWN IN THE 2PM ADVISORY. LATEST IR SAT PIC ALREADY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE PRESENTATION.

BOTTOM LINE...INTENSITY FCST IS MORE CLEAR CUT THAN TRACK THIS MORNING AND ALTHOUGH KEITH WILL BE A THREAT TO THE
GULF COAST IN THE WEEK AHEAD IT DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS GRAVE AS IT DID YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF A MAJOR (115 MPH+)
HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL.

NEXT UPDATE BY 7AM MONDAY.

STAY TUNED.

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.