TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
ISSUED: 5:45 A.M. - FRIDAY - 8/18/00

THIS WILL BE SHORT AND COMPLETE UPDATE ON T.D.#6 WITH MAP WILL BE AVAIL AROUND NOON TODAY.

ALBERTO: IS NOW ON THE N.W. PART OF HIS LOOP AND WILL LIKELY ATTAIN MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY SOMETIME TODAY.
FORECAST IS GOING WELL AND HE SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE NNE/NE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THEN OUT OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.

WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION. CONDITIONS
FAVOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SYSTEM IS AT LOW LATITUDE AND COULD POSE A THREAT DOWN THE ROAD
SHOULD IT DEVELOP FURTHER. 

T.D. #6: SHORT ON TIME RIGHT NOW AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME VISIBLE PICTURES FIRST ANYWAY. IN SUMMARY....CONDITIONS
FOR T.D. #6 TO DEVELOP ARE FAIR TODAY/TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND. SLOW/STEADY DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. PRETTY MUCH AGREE WITH LATEST TPC INTENSITY FCST.

TRACK: WELL, IT WAS A GOOD THING I LEFT THE WINDOW OPEN YESTERDAY FOR A TRACK OTHER THAN SIMPLE RECURVATURE.
THERE ARE MORE SIGNS THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY THAT RECURVATURE MAY NOT BE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION.
00Z FRIDAY GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LESS AMPLIFICATION TO THE EAST COAST TROF...THE FIRST SIGNALS OF WHICH CAME IN THE 00Z
THURSDAY RUNS. AS A RESULT IF T.D.#6 CAN STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH NEXT FEW DAYS AND LOWER AMPLIFICATION FCST IS CORRECT...AND I THINK IT IS... HE COULD BE A THREAT TO THE U.S. SOME GUIDANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING THIS. WHILE THIS
IS JUST STARTING TO UNFOLD IT IS AT THE VERY LEAST WORTH SAYING "T.D. #6 COULD POSE THREAT TO THE U.S. DOWN THE ROAD"

AS FOR THE ISLANDS....I'LL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER IDEA ON THIS AFTER I SEE SOME VISIBLE PICS AND GET A BETTER CENTER FIX.
SAFE TO SAY IT WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS...BE IT JUST NORTH...OR JUST SOUTH.

WILL HAVE MORE DETAILS ON T.D. #6 ABOUT NOON TODAY - WILL ALSO TRY TO GET A MAP POSTED (WITH THE HELP OF STEVE) ON MY WEBSITE.

I WILL BE UNAVAIL AFTER ABOUT 1:00 TODAY SO NEXT UPDATE (AFTER THE ONE AT NOON TODAY) NOT UNTIL ABOUT 1:00 P.M. SATURDAY