TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE AND HURRICANE KEITH
ISSUED: MONDAY - 10/2/00 - 6:30 A.M.


T.D. JOYCE: JOYCE LOOKS MORE LIKE AN OPEN WAVE THAN A DEPRESSION BASED ON LATEST IR SATELLITE....IN ADDITION WINDS FROM A FEW LOCATIONS AND ONE SHIP IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ARE ALL LESS THAN 25 MPH. CONDITIONS LOOK TO ME TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND AS SUCH I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST TPC INTENSITY FCST BETTER THAN LAST FEW..BUT STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE ESPECIALLY AT THE 72HRS. SINCE I THINK THIS IS MORE A WAVE THAN A DEPRESSION I WOULD ALSO TRACK THE ASSOCIATED T-STORMS SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH THAN TPC IS TRACKING THE CENTER.  LET'S ASSUME IT IS STILL A DEPRESSION AND LET'S ASSUME TPC TRACK AND FCST IS CORRECT AT 72 HOURS. A DEEP TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. IF TPC IS CORRECT (WHICH I DON'T THINK THEY ARE) THEN JOYCE WOULD CONTINUE W.N.W. - THEN N.W. THEN BEND RATHER SHARPLY N.E. TO CROSS FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AS SHE IS PICKED UP BY THE S.W. FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING TROF. I JUST TOSS THAT OUT IN CASE I'VE MISSED THE BOAT AND TPC IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK....BUT AS OF NOW I'M NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM "JOYCE".


KEITH: KEITH HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND I CAN'T HONESTLY SAY HE WILL MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24.  I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF 24 HOURS FROM NOW HE IS WITHIN 100-150 MILES OF HIS PRESENT LOCATION. I JUST DON'T SEE MUCH THAT IS GOING TO GET HIM MOVING IN ANY ONE DIRECTION QUICKLY. ANY SIGNIFICANT MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD TAKE KEITH EITHER NORTH OR N.W....BUT SLOWLY.

BEYOND THAT....WHO KNOWS!? AS I'VE BEEN SAYING SINCE SATURDAY UNTIL SOME DEFINITE MOTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED ANY FCST OF MOTION IS JUST A FCST BASED ON MODELS...AND THEY HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR THIS NORTHWARD OR NW MOTION FOR DAYS AND IT HAS STILL NOT BEGUN...SO UNTIL A STEERING PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED WE HAVE TO SIT AND WAIT.

BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS....I AGREE WITH THIS BUT IT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS.

SO, DEPENDING ON WHEN THIS MOTION GETS UNDERWAY, HOW FAST AND IN EXACTLY WHAT DIRECTION IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHERE KEITH WILL THREATEN THE GULF COAST.  RESIDENTS FROM NEW ORLEANS TO WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEED TO PAY MOST ATTENTION. THERE IS A LESSER THREAT WEST OF NEW ORLEANS TO THE TEXAS COAST BUT EVEN THERE RESIDENTS NEED TO PAY ATTENTION.

MY FCST TRACK WOULD BE TO THE RIGHT OF LATEST TPC TRACK AND I ACTUALLY LIKE THE LATEST AVN THINKING OF A MOVE MORE NORTH THAN NW OVER TIME...WITH A POTENTIAL LANDFALLING THREAT ALONG THE AL/MS OR WEST FL PANHANDLE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK....IF MOTION IS SLOWER KEITH WOULD BE AFFECTED MORE BY DIGGING TROF LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE THREAT TO FL WEST COAST WOULD BE HIGHER.

BOTTOM LINE....CONFIDENCE IN ANY FCST BY ANY FORECASTER NEEDS TO BE LOW UNTIL SOME SOLID MOTION BEGINS.

KEITH IS BATTERING THE BELIZE AREA AND SOME OF THE NEWS REPORTS THAT COME OUT OF THIS AREA WHEN THINGS SETTLE DOWN IN A FEW DAYS COULD BE STAGGERING. RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING COULD RIVAL SOME OF THE WORST DISASTERS IN THAT
AREA. DESPITE THE LACK OF AN EYE ON SAT PICS...THE CONVECTION LOOKS VERY HEALTHY AND RAINFALL RATES ARE TREMENDOUS.
NOT TO MENTION THE AREA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS BEEN BATTERED BY WINDS OF AT LEAST 60-70+ FOR ALMOST 24 HOURS WITH NUMEROUS HOURS OF WINDS OVER 90 MPH. THIS IS A DISASTER IN THE MAKING.

INTENSITY: AGAIN, HARD TO TELL. SHORT TERM I WOULD EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE...EITHER UP OR DOWN UNLESS KEITH TAKES A JOG INLAND. AS LONG AS HIS CENTER IS CLOSE TO OR OFF THE COAST HE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD IN THE 90-100 MPH RANGE.  INTENSITY BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS DEPENDS GREATLY ON TRACK AND SINCE THAT IS A LARGE UNKNOWN SO MUST THE INTENSITY FCST BE. AFTER KEITH ENTERS THE GULF CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE AT LEAST INITIALLY FOR INTENSIFICATION...IT STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT KEITH LANDFALLS ALONG THE GULF COAST AS A HURRICANE...BUT I WOULD KEEP IT IN THE CAT 1 RANGE AT LANDFALL AS CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL GO DOWNHILL AS FAR AS BEING FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. AGAIN, ALL THIS DEPENDS ON WHEN AND WHERE KEITH EMERGES INTO THE GULF.

ANY FORECAST AT THIS HOUR SHOULD BE VIEWED AT THE VERY LEAST AS UNCERTAIN. RESIDENTS OF THE GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR KEITH AS HE IS STILL A THREAT TO THE GULF COAST.

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.