T.S. KEITH
ISSUED: TUESDAY - 10/3/00 - 7:00 A.M.

FIRST OFF...I THINK EVEN THE MOST DIE HARD OF US WILL NOW ADMIT .... JOYCE IS GONE.


T.S. KEITH: I WILL KEEP THIS SHORT SINCE CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT THAT HIGH WITH THE FUTURE OF KEITH.

MOTION...WE HAVE MOTION! KEITH IS FINALLY MOVING...N.W. AT 6 MPH. THE N.W. DRIFT THAT BEGAN LATE LAST NIGHT NOW SEEMS TO BE SOLID MOTION TO THE N.W. AT 6 MPH. THAT MEANS KEITH HAS COVERED ABOUT 60 OR SO MILES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS! THE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS HOW FAST DOES HE MOVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS....MEANING EXACTLY WHEN DOES HE EMERGE OFF THE YUCATAN AND WHERE??? OTHER QUESTION IS WHAT CONDITION WILL HE BE IN WHEN HE DOES EMERGE? AS LONG AS IT TAKES HIM 24 HOURS OR LESS TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST HE HAS A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT ... ANYTHING MUCH LONGER THAN THAT AND I HAVE SERIOUS QUESTION IF HE WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE A COMEBACK.

I HAVE NO REAL PROBLEM WITH THE LATEST TPC TRACK OR INTENSITY FCST....IT IS AS GOOD AS ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. IF ANYTHING I'D HAVE THE 72HR PSN SOMEWHAT MORE TO THE RIGHT.

MODELS ALL AGREE ON DIGGING A STRONG TROF INTO THE CENTRAL / EASTERN U.S. LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS TROF WILL BE THE EVENTUAL PLAYER IN THE MOTION OF KEITH. EXACT TRACK WILL DEPEND ON WHEN KEITH STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THIS TROF....IT EVENTUALLY WILL BUT I'M NOT SURE EXACTLY WHEN. 

BOTTOM LINE...COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM THE LA COAST EAST TO THE ALABAMA COAST NEED TO PAY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE STILL REMAINS A THREAT A STRONG T.S. OR CAT 1 HURRICANE LANDFALLING ON THE GULF COAST IN 72-84 HOURS.

INTENSITY: AGAIN WILL DEPEND ON WHAT CONDITION KEITH EMERGES OFF THE YUCATAN IN. CONDITIONS SEEM FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO ANY LANDFALL.  BUT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.....IT IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS KEITH GETS INTO THE GULF IN 24 HOURS OR SO THAT WE HAVE A CAT 1 HURRICANE BY LANDFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME THAT IF EVERYTHING FELL INTO PLACE KEITH COULD REACH LOW CAT 2 STATUS BUT THAT SEEMS A REACH AT THIS POINT. IT MAY BE ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS BEFORE ANYONE HAS A SOLID IDEA AS TO WHAT KEITH WILL FINALLY DO.

WHILE NOT LIKELY...IT IS POSSIBLE KEITH TAKES SO MUCH TIME OVER THE YUCATAN THAT HE IS SO WEAKENED HE IS STEERED MORE WEST BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE UPPER COAST OF MEXICO.  AGAIN, NOT LIKELY BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

IN SUMMARY...BEST FORECAST NOW IS FOR A T.S. OR CAT 1 HURRICANE ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM LA TO AL IN 72 TO 84 HOURS.

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.