T.S. KEITH 
ISSUED: 10/4/00 - 7:00 A.M. 

KEITH IS STILL A DEPRESSION AS PER LATEST 5AM TPC ADVISORY...BASED ON SATELLITE HE IS TROPICAL STORM. AS TPC MENTIONED THERE IS UNCERTAINTY USING IR PICS IN PLACING A CENTER, NO VIS PIC YET AND NOT SFC OBSERVATIONS....BUT BASED ON IR CONVECTIVE BURSTING THIS WILL BE A T.S. IN VERY SHORT ORDER.

I HATE TO BE DULL BUT THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORT AND SWEET. I AM IN FULL AGREEMENT WITH LATEST TPC FCST ON BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK. IF ANY CHANGES ARE TO BE MADE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL THEY WOULD BE TO MAKE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND PERHAPS IF ANY TRACK ADJUSTMENT IS NEEDED IT WOULD BE TO THE RIGHT.

THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS A CAT 1 HURRICANE WILL BE LANDFALLING OVER N.E. MEXICO OR AT WORST EXTREME S.E. TEXAS IN 48 TO 60 HOURS TOPS. RESIDENTS OF S.E. TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KEITH TO MAKE SURE THERE IS NOT MORE OF A NORTH TURN TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD....THERE COULD BE.

INTENSITY....THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BURSTING IS IMPRESSIVE AND SUGGESTS TO ME CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR QUICK INTENSIFICATION.
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR BEYOND 24-36 HOURS WILL BE THE AMT. OF DRY AIR OVER THE N.W. GULF...IF THAT GETS PULLED SOUTH IT WOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN CAUSE WEAKENING. ON THE OTHER HAND IF KEITH CAN PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF HIMSELF AND DRIER AIR IS NOT DRAWN SOUTH LOW END CAT 2 INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE.

FOR NOW WILL GO ALONG WITH THE WEAKER SCENARIO AND FCST A CAT 1 HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. BUT...REMEMBER INTENSITY FCSTING IS FAR FROM AN EXACT SCIENCE AND BE WARNED A STRONGER HURRICANE IS POSSIBLE.

KUDOS TO THE NOGPAS! AS TPC POINTED OUT THE NOGAPS **ALL ALONG** NEVER CALLED FOR A NORTH TURN AND CONSISTENTLY 
TRACKED KEITH ACROSS THE YUCATAN...INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD MEXICO. THIS MODEL IS USUALLY A FOLLOWER AND NOT A LEADER...BUT THIS TIME IT IS SHINING BRIGHTLY AMONG THE RUIN OF THE PLETHORA OF OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH TOOK DAYS AND DAYS TO LATCH ONTO THE RIGHT IDEA.

FALL WILL BE COMING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH FORCE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE CAN CRANK OUT THE OTHER TWO STORMS WE NEED (L & M) SO WE CAN GET TO "MICHAEL"....WE MIGHT DO IT WITH SOME CARIBBEAN END OF FRONT ACTION BETWEEN NOW AND 11/30.

WILL UPDATE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LATER THAN USUAL ... AROUND 9:30 A.M.

THIS INFORMATION IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED IN PLACE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION FROM LOCAL EMS/NWS...IT IS INTENDED TO INFORM READERS OF MY OPINIONS ONLY. IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE...PLEASE DO SO! PLEASE MAKE DECISIONS BASED ON INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY LOCAL EMS/NWS OFFICIALS.  NO RESPONSIBILITY WRITTEN OR IMPLIED ON USE OF THIS PRODUCT.