TROPICAL STORM CHRIS - NOON - FRIDAY - 8/18/00

T. D. #6 IS NOW T.S. CHRIS.

NO 12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO ADD TO THE MIX AT THIS HOUR - 12Z TPC SUITE WAS DISCUSSED IN 9:15 SHORT UPDATE.

T.S. CHRIS CONTINUES TO BECOME SLOWLY BETTER ORGANIZED. CONVECTION IS IN "PULSE DOWN" MODE ATTM BUT SHOULD COME
BACK LATER TODAY. RECON SHOULD BE ON THE SCENE WITHIN THE HOUR.

INTENSITY: I'M IN AGREEMENT WITH TPC FCST...AS MENTIONED IN TPC 11AM DISCUSSION THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR FASTER 
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24-36 HOURS.

TRACK: MY FIRST ATTEMPT AT A MAP IS ON THE WEBSITE...I HOPE TO IMPROVE ON THE QUALITY BUT MY TIME IS VERY LIMITED.
MY 72HR PSN IS SOMEWHAT N.E. OF LATEST TPC FCST. FEEL RATHER CONFIDENT THE CHRIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...ON A
GENERAL N.W. TRACK AFTER A SHORT TERM (12-24 HR) SLOW W.N.W. MOTION. 

TRACK COULD BEND MORE W.N.W. OR POSSIBLY WEST BEYOND MONDAY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. 
IF TRACK DOES INDEED BEND MORE W.N.W. OR WEST MONDAY..THEN THREAT TO FL COAST WOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF RECURVATURE SINCE REMNANTS OF EAST COAST TROF WILL BE GONE.

IF CHRIS WERE TO REMAIN WEAKER THAN EXPECTED THE TRACK WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTH. THAT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE THE CASE AT THIS TIME.

TRACK FCST BEYOND 72 HRS: WITH NO NEW GLOBAL GUIDANCE AT THIS HOUR I'M MORE OR LESS GOING ON TRENDS FROM 00Z GLOBAL
GUIDANCE. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY CHRIS IS NOT A LOCK FOR SAFE RECURVATURE. FCST "CONE" ON MAP SUGGESTS A POSITION
THAT COULD BE CLOSING IN ON THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST OR SOME 350 MILES OFF THE NORTH FL COAST. THE FCST CONE IS FOR
GUIDANCE ONLY AND IS 4-5 DAYS OUT AND SHOULD BE TAKEN AS GUIDANCE AS TO POSSIBLE TRACK.

CONDITIONS OVER TIME...BEYOND DAY 3...COULD OFFER A VERY INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR BOTH SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND 
TRACK THAT COULD THREATEN U.S. COAST.

USUALLY I WOULD HAVE WAITED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO UPDATE AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z GUIDANCE BUT I WILL BE OUT FOR
THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND WANTED TO GET THE "FIRST GUESS" TRACK OUT.

IN ANY EVENT...RESIDENTS OF THE S.E. COAST...ESP. FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF CHRIS.

SORRY TO BE BRIEF...MORE TOMORROW.