TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
ISSUED: SATURDAY - 8/19/00 - NOON 

ALBERTO: ALBERTO IS NOW ON THE NORTHWARD LEG OF HIS JOURNEY TO NOWHERE. ALBERTO HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY FOR
THE LAST TIME...HIS VERY LARGE EYE...SEEMS TO BE THE SEASON OF THE "BIG EYE"...IS WELL DEVELOPED AND LARGE ENOUGH TO DRIVE A
FLEET OF SHERMAN TANKS THOUGH. ALBERTO SHOULD BEND MORE TO THE NNE THEN NORTHEAST WITH TIME AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN 
AND ACCELERATE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. ROUGH GUESS IS THAT HE IS GONE FROM THE MAPS AS A NAMED SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY. BYE-BYE-BYE.

TROPICAL WAVE "CHRIS": WHAT WAS ONCE T.S. CHRIS IS NOW AN OPEN WAVE. SHEAR ALTHOUGH WEAK HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON CHRIS.
SCORE ONE FOR THE UKMET INTENSITY FCST...AT LEAST FOR NOW. THIS WEAKENING WAS ALWAYS AN OPTION WITH CHRIS BUT ONE I
CHOSE TO PLAY DOWN AS IT WAS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION..SOMETIMES NOT THE MOST LIKELY IS WHAT TURNS INTO REALITY.
I WISH IT WORKED THAT WAY WHEN I BUY LOTTERY TICKETS! 

IN ANY EVENT...THERE REMAINS A WEAK CONVECTION FREE LL CLOUD SWIRL ASSOCIATED WITH CHRIS. WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR IS FCST
TO PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. BEYOND THAT *IF* THE REMNANTS OF CHRIS CAN HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH THERE REMAINS THE DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT...BECAUSE AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME GOOD TO VERY GOOD FOR 
INTENSIFICATION. KEY TO THIS IS WILL REMAINS OF CHRIS BE ABLE TO HANG ON ENOUGH NEXT 24-36 HOURS???
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS TO FCST NO RE-DEVELOPMENT....BUT I WOULD WATCH THIS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND NOT TOTALLY
WRITE IT OFF JUST YET. **IF** REDEVELOPMENT WERE TO TAKE PLACE THE THREAT TO THE S.E. COAST...ESPECIALLY FLORIDA WOULD
REMAIN.

WAVE EAST OF THE ISLANDS: I WILL BE SHOCKED IF THIS IS NOT UPGRADED TO A DEPRESSION BEFORE THE DAYS IS OVER.
FORECAST HERE IS FOR DEPRESSION TODAY AND T.S. TOMORROW. RESIDENTS FROM THE CENTRAL ISLANDS NORTH NEED TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION...THIS SYSTEM NO MATTER WHAT THE INTENSITY...IS **NOT** GOING TO MISS THE ISLANDS. BEST FCST AT THIS
TIME IS FOR A MODERATE TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS.
LATEST SHIPS BRINGS THIS TO HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN 72 HOURS....I'M THINKING THIS MAY BE A BIT OVER ZEALOUS BUT NOT 100%
IMPOSSIBLE.

ONCE AGAIN...RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ISLANDS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DEAL WITH THIS SYSTEM..IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER..
WITHIN 48-60 HOURS.

THIS WILL BE ONLY UPDATE TODAY...IF WAVE EAST OF THE ISLANDS DOES WHAT I'VE FCST IT TO DO...I'LL ISSUE UPDATE WITH TRACK FCST
TOMORROW....OTHERWISE JUST AN UPDATE WILL BE POSTED TOMORROW AT AROUND NOON.