TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
TUESDAY - 8/29/00 - 8:30 A.M.

QUIET...QUIET...QUIET.

SOME FORECASTERS ARE TRYING TO MAKE SOMETHING OF THE T-STORMS OFF THE S.E. COAST...BUT IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN.  CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOT FAVORABLE AND AS THEY START TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THE T-STORM COMPLEX WILL BE HEADED INLAND. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK FROM COASTAL GA NORTH INTO EASTERN SC & NC...BUT NOTHING TO GET EXCITED OVER. THOSE FOLKS NEED RAIN AND THEY WILL GET ON THE ORDER OF 1-3"...WITH  MAX AMTS. OVER EASTERN NC.

ELSEWHERE....THE GULF IS SHUT DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...AS IS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN. CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY THE WEEKEND BUT THAT BY NO MEANS ASSURES ANY KIND OF DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE AS HOSTILE AS I'VE EVER SEEN THEM FOR LATE AUGUST. HERE AS WELL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY THE WEEKEND BUT AGAIN THAT DOES NOT MEAN SOMETHING WILL POP AS SOON AS SHEAR LESSENS.

IN SUMMARY...WE MADE IT THOUGH AUGUST WITH A RESPECTABLE LONG LIVED HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC..TWO TROPICAL STORMS AND A CLOUD SWIRL THAT NEVER COULD GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER AND A HURRICANE THAT HAD LOTS OF POTENTIAL BUT SUCCUMBED TO SHEAR AND MADE FOR ALOT OF HEAD SCRATCHING AMONG FORECASTERS.

ONE FINAL COMMENT ON DEBBY....I STILL MAINTAIN THAT IF DEBBY HAD SLOWLY AND STEADILY INCREASED IN INTENSITY AS SHE PULLED AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO SHE WOULD HAVE HEADED TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA ...THE ONLY REASON SHE WENT WEST WAS BECAUSE WE WERE TRACKING A LL CENTER BEING PUSHED WEST BY A STRONG LL EAST TO WEST FLOW...HAD SHE BEEN STRONGER SHE WOULD HAVE HEADED MORE W.N.W. OR N.W. TOWARD THE S.E. COAST...AND THEN BASED ON THE UPPER FLOW WE HAD OVER THE WEEKEND FURTHER NORTH TO AFFECT THE S.E./MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WE'LL NEVER KNOW...BUT THOSE FORECASTERS WHO THINK THEY SCORED A "HIT" WITH A WESTWARD INTO THE GULF SOLUTION I THINK ARE WAY OFF BASE.

BUT I DIGRESS....NO NAMED STORMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE BALANCE OF AUGUST AND THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 50/50 CHANCE WE MAKE IT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITHOUT ONE. IF WE DO MAKE IT THOUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITHOUT ONE AND CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY 8/5 DON'T LOOK BETTER THAN THEY ARE NOW THIS SEASON IS GOING TO HAVE SOME SERIOUS TROUBLE REACHING FORECAST TOTALS...IN MY OPINION IT IS ALREADY IN TROUBLE.

BUT.....REMEMBER....IT ONLY TAKES *ONE* STORM TO MAKE IT A MEMORABLE SEASON AND I'M IN TO WAY READY TO RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY....BUT IT WON'T HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THE BIG ONES HAVE HIT THE EAST COAST AFTER THE 15TH OF SEPTEMBER.

AS FAR AS CAPE VERDE SYSTEMS GO...IF YOU CONSIDER A TRUE CAPE VERDE STORM ONE THAT COMES OF AFRICA...REACHES TS/HURRICANE INTENSITY WELL EAST OF THE ISLANDS THEN CURVES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WE'RE NOT LIKELY TO SEE ONE OF THOSE...I THINK CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE NOT RIGHT AND NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE SOON ENOUGH ...HOWEVER ... WAVES COMING OFF AFRICA COULD MOVE WEST AND DEVELOP CLOSER IN NEARER THE ISLANDS AND THEN THREATEN THE UNITED STATES.

TIME WILL TELL BUT I'M NOT EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS.