TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY - 9/06/00 - 4:45 P.M.

RECON FOUND NO CLOSED CIRCULATION WHICH IS SURPRISING BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE PICS. LAST FEW VIS PICS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE MORE THAN ONE VORTICITY CENTER - BUT THE MAIN ONE SEEMS TO BE NEAR 15.8N...SO IT HAS SLIPPED S.S.W. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

IN ANY EVENT BASED ON RECON DATA THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE UPGRADED AT 5:00....SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FESTER AND I JUST BELIEVE IT IS A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE IT IS CLASSIFIED. EVENTUAL MOTION WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST (275-285) AT AROUND 10-15 MPH...MORE WEST EARLY ON (NEXT 12-24 HOURS)...THEN MORE W.N.W. BEYOND THAT...IN THE 24-48 HR TIME FRAME.

I STILL BELIEVE IT WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS WITHIN 48 HOURS....OR SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MORE TOMORROW.