TROPICAL STORM BARRY – POST #1

ISSUED: THURSDAY – 8/2/01 – 8:00 P.M.

T.S. BARRY WAS NAMED TODAY AT 3:00 P.M. AS RECON FOUND A BROAD CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. BARRY MUCH LIKE ALLISON SKIPPED T.D. STAGE AND WENT RIGHT TO T.S. STATUS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WRAP AROUND THE CENTER AND BARRY CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER ORGANIZED.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS NOT THAT DEEP ALL BUT THE S.E. QUAD IS SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS.

BARRY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TRACK THINKING FROM EARLIER TODAY. ATTACHED GRAPHIC SHOWS LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE SOMEWHAT BACKED OFF ON THE LOUISIANA COAST AS POTENTIAL LANDFALL. THOUGH I CAN NOT RULE IT OUT 100%. FEEL IF THERE IS TO BE AN ERROR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIODS IT WILL BE TO THE LEFT AND NOT THE RIGHT. REALLY DON’T SEE ANYTHING TO DISLODGE THE PERSISTENT STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH IT MAY RETROGRESS SOME IN LATER PERIODS I THINK IT WILL BE SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.

IF IT WERE TO RETROGRESS QUICKER THAN THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LOUISIANA WOULD BE BACK IN THE PICTURE ONCE AGAIN. WAY TO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE. RESIDENTS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE UPDATES.

INTENSITY: SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE AND BARRY WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. ATTACHED GRAPHIC SUGGESTS 90 MPH BY SUNDAY EVENING. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. CAN’T RULE OUT LOW END CAT 2 HURRICANE AT TIME OF LANDFALL.

INTENSITY FORECAST IS BY NO MEANS AN EXACT SCIENCE AND LAGS GREATLY WHEN ONE CONSIDERS THE ADVANCES OVER THE YEARS IN EXTENDED PERIOD TRACK ERRORS. MORAL OF THE STORY….TAKE ANY INTENSITY FORECASTS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

WHILE IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO TELL…ONCE BARRY MAKES LANDFALL IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO GO ANYWHERE FAST. SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED.