STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM BARRY – POST #2

ISSUED: SUNDAY – 8/5/01 – 10:00 A.M.

FIRST OFF…SORRY FOR THE LACK OF UPDATES LAST TWO DAYS. I’M BACK IN THE SADDLE THIS MORNING.

BASED ON LATEST DATA (RECON/SATELLITE/RADAR) BARRY IS UNDERGOING AN INTENSIFICATION BURST AND PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 990 MBS. AND MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. BARRY IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AND WILL LIKELY DO SO BEFORE LANDFALL.

ALL LATEST MODEL DATA HAS CONVERGED ON A FLORIDA PANHANDLE LANDFALL WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS.

CURRENT THINKING HERE IS FOR A 75-90 MPH HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN FORT WALTON BEACH AND PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING (BETWEEN 6AM AND 10 AM) WILL TRY TO NARROW THIS DOWN FURTHER IN A POST AROUND 8:00 TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DO NOT SEEM TO BE OVERLY FAVORABLE AND AT THIS POINT I DO NOT EXPECT THE INTENSITY OF BARRY TO GET OUT OF HAND. KEEP IN MIND INTENSITY FORECASTING IS TRICKY AND RESIDENTS OF NW FLORIDA SHOULD AT THE VERY LEAST PREPARE FOR CAT 1. HURRICANE CONDITIONS.

WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. A SURGE OF BETWEEN 7-9’ IS POSSIBLE IF BARRY REACHES THE UPPER (90 MPH) INTENSITY RANGE. RAINFALL TOTALS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 15” ARE LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK UP INTO ALABAMA AND EXTREME WESTERN GEORGIA. I THINK NCEP TOTALS FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE WOEFULLY UNDERDONE.

WHILE I’M NOT EXPECTING HISTORICAL FLOODING, BARRY WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND SOME FLOODING/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY AND THERE WILL BE INLAND FLOODING.

ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK THERE WILL BE MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WINDS OF BETWEEN 75-90 MPH…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS. AGAIN, WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE HISTORICAL IN NATURE IT WILL CAUSE DAMAGE AND NECESSARY ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.

IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE YOU SHOULD.

IN SUMMARY…. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD PREPARE FOR AT THE VERY LEAST A WEAK CAT 1 HURRICANE AND NOT BE SURPRISED STRONG

CAT. 1 CONDITIONS ARE EXPERIENCED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK.

MORE THIS EVENING.