TROPICAL STORM BARRY – POST #3

ISSUED: SUNDAY – 8/5/01 – 8:30 P.M.

 

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM POST ISSUED EARLIER TODAY.

 

WILL NARROW DOWN LANDFALL LOCATION AND TIME….OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE.

 

AFTER THE INTENSIFICATION SPURT EARLY THIS MORNING BARRY HAS LONG SINCE LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY.

 

LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR HALTED THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AND ERODED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  ONCE AGAIN A BULLET DODGED.

 

HAD THE WESTERLY SHEAR NOT AFFECTED BARRY HE WOULD HAVE BEEN FREE TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION AND WE COULD HAVE EASILY SEEN A 100 MPH HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL.  SUCH IS NOT THE CASE AND BARRY WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM…NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.

 

BECAUSE THE WESTERN SIDE HAS BEEN ERODED MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE TAKING PLACE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF LANDFALL LOCATION.  EFFECTS TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK WILL BE MINIMAL.

 

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR LANDFALL TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF FORT WALTON BEACH BETWEEN 3AM AND 6 AM EASTERN TIME.

 

EFFECTS WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 55-65 MPH, HEAVY RAINS AND A SURGE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 FEET.  ISOLATED TORNADIC ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE,

CONDITIONS ARE NOT PRIME FOR NUMEROUS TORNADOS.

 

THE AREA FROM NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH EAST TO NEAR CAPE SAN BLAS IS LIKELY TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 3-5’ SURGE.

 

HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD INLAND…WITH THE EXCESSIVE AMTS BEING CONFINED NEAR THE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CIRCULATION TRACK.  ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 15” ARE POSSIBLE.

 

INLAND FLOODING IS LIKELY NEXT 2-3 DAYS….BUT IT WILL BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF BARRY.

 

NOT MUCH ELSE TO SAY….IT WILL BE A RAINY, SQUALLY NIGHT OVER OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE….BUT NOT AS BAD AS IT COULD HAVE BEEN.