TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL
9:30 A.M. - THURSDAY - 8/16/01
JUST
A SHORT UPDATE. TPC HAS
UPGRADED TD#4 TO TS CHANTAL.
CHANTAL
IS RACING WEST AT NEAR 28 MPH. THIS IS AS FAST AS I'VE SEEN A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION/STORM MOVE THAT DEEP IN
THE
TROPICS AND STILL HOLD TOGETHER AS WELL AS THIS IS.
STILL BELIEVE SOME SLOWING IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.
THIS
RAPID FORWARD MOTION IS GOING TO BRING CHANTAL INTO THE ISLANDS WITHIN 15-20
HOURS. UNTIL CHANTAL SLOWS
INTENSIFICATION
IS GOING TO BE SLOW AND LIMITED. IT
WOULD JUST BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A SYSTEM MOVING THAT FAST
DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. BASED ON THIS ONLY EXPECT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLANDS WITH WORST EFFECTS NEAR
AND
NORTH OF THE CENTER. WITH THE FAST
FORWARD MOTION WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
THAN SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED IN THE ADVISORIES.
RECON
WILL INVESTIGATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHER
NOTE OF INTEREST IS: LATEST GFDL
AND UKMET DISSIPATE CHANTAL WITHIN 60-72 HOURS.
EVEN TPC TROPICAL MODEL SUITE
HAS
BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY BACKING OFF ON INTENSITY.
WHILE I THINK DISSIPATION IS UNLIKELY I DO NOT EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ASSUMING
CHANTAL SURVIVES AND TO A LARGE EXTENT AVOIDS LAND THIS COULD GET INTERESTING IN
THE LONGER RANGE PERIODS.
BASIC
SCENARIO I OUTLINED LAST NIGHT REMAINS....CHANTAL TO SOME EXTENT TANGLES WITH
CUBA...AND ENDS UP IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF.
BEYOND THAT....CONDITIONS COULD FAVOR SOME RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS JUST SPECULATION AND WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE WE GET THERE.