TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
9:30 A.M. - THURSDAY - 8/16/01  

JUST A SHORT UPDATE.   TPC HAS UPGRADED TD#4 TO TS CHANTAL.

CHANTAL IS RACING WEST AT NEAR 28 MPH. THIS IS AS FAST AS I'VE SEEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION/STORM MOVE THAT DEEP IN

THE TROPICS AND STILL HOLD TOGETHER AS WELL AS THIS IS.  STILL BELIEVE SOME SLOWING IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.

THIS RAPID FORWARD MOTION IS GOING TO BRING CHANTAL INTO THE ISLANDS WITHIN 15-20 HOURS.  UNTIL CHANTAL SLOWS

INTENSIFICATION IS GOING TO BE SLOW AND LIMITED.  IT WOULD JUST BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A SYSTEM MOVING THAT FAST

DEVELOP RAPIDLY.  BASED ON THIS ONLY EXPECT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLANDS WITH WORST EFFECTS NEAR

AND NORTH OF THE CENTER.  WITH THE FAST FORWARD MOTION WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED IN THE ADVISORIES.

RECON WILL INVESTIGATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHER NOTE OF INTEREST IS:  LATEST GFDL AND UKMET DISSIPATE CHANTAL WITHIN 60-72 HOURS.  EVEN TPC TROPICAL MODEL SUITE

HAS BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY BACKING OFF ON INTENSITY.  WHILE I THINK DISSIPATION IS UNLIKELY I DO NOT EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  ASSUMING CHANTAL SURVIVES AND TO A LARGE EXTENT AVOIDS LAND THIS COULD GET INTERESTING IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIODS.

BASIC SCENARIO I OUTLINED LAST NIGHT REMAINS....CHANTAL TO SOME EXTENT TANGLES WITH CUBA...AND ENDS UP IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF.

BEYOND THAT....CONDITIONS COULD FAVOR SOME RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  THIS IS JUST SPECULATION AND WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE WE GET THERE.