TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL - 4:30 P.M. - THURSDAY - 8/16/01

GETTING THIS UPDATE OUT EARLY TODAY SINCE I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE TONIGHT.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANTAL TODAY.  FORWARD MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 20 MPH+.  THERE APEARS TO HAVE BEEN ONLY MINIMAL SLOWING OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.  CONVECTION REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED AND DOING ITS BEST TO KEEP ALIGNED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER CONSIDERING THE VERY RAPID FORWARD SPEED.  RECON WILL BE IN THE AREA SHORTLY...BUT I DON'T EXPECT ANY SURPRISES...I THINK THEY WILL FIND A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ISLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.  WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE NORTH OF THE SFC CENTER IN TERMS OF WIND.  CHANTAL WILL EMERGE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY FRIDAY.

INTENSITY:  CONDITIONS ARE PRIME FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND ARE FCST TO REMAIN PRIME FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS LATEST NCEP GLOBAL 200 MB FCSTS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE....BUT CHANTAL NEEDS TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE THERE IS GOING TO BE MUCH IF ANY INTENSIFICATION. 

IN MY OPINION CHANTAL COULD BE A FORCE TO RECON WITH AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  HAVE NOT SEEN LATEST 5PM TPC PACKAGE BUT 11AM PACKAGE MAY BE A BIT OVER ZEALOUS WITH INTENSITY..ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORTER RANGE.   IN SUMMARY....ONLY MINOR INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THEN AS CHANTAL STARTS TO SLOW SHE SHOULD BE FREE TO DEEPEN...PERHAPS RAPIDLY.  GFDL/UKMET (12Z) HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE DISSIPATION IDEA AND SHIPS IS BACK TO NEAR 90 KTS IN 72 HRS.....80-90 KTS SEEMS REASONABLE BY 72 HRS.

SHORT TERM TRACK:  CHANTAL STILL REMAINS TO SOUTH OF WELL ENTRENCHED DLM RIDGE...NO CHANGE IN THAT IS EXPECTED NEXT

24-48-72 HOURS.  SO A GENERAL WEST..GRADUALLY MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 72 HRS.  TPC TROPICAL SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN THE VCTY OF 15-16N BY 72 HRS.  THEY HAVE PERSISTED IN THE MOST SOUTHERN ROUTE AS COMPARED TO GLOBAL MODELS.  FEELING HERE IS THAT CHANTAL WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF DLM RIDGE BY ROUGHLY 72 HRS AND THUS THE MORE NORTHERN ROUTE IS EXPECTED..AS PER LATEST 12Z NOGAPS/12Z UKMET.

LONGER TERM TRACK:  AS SUGGESTED LAST NIGHT CHANTAL SEEMS DESTINED TO ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD BEYOND 96 HOURS.  THIS MAY BE BY WAY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR A TANGLE WITH CUBA....BUT BELIEVE CHANTAL IS DESTINED FOR GULF.  CAN'T SEE A TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE GULF AS MOST GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO ALLOW A MORE NW/N MOTION TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF COAST....SAY ROUGHLY FROM 90W ON EASTWARD.  NCEP MANUAL PROGS ARE NOW FOLLOWING THIS IDEA...BACKING OFF THE IDEA OF WESTERN ATLANTIC RECURVATURE THEY PRESENTED YESTERDAY.  INTENSITY IF ALL THIS WORKS OUT COULD BE INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST AS SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF.

BOTTOM LINE HERE....IT IS DAYS AND DAYS AWAY...BUT EARLY THINKING IS CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES NEED TO KEEP A WARY EYE ON CHANTAL.

KEY IN FCST IN LONGER RANGES HINGES ON HOW CHANTAL PERFORMS NEXT 24-48 HOURS....AS SHORT TERM INTENSITY WILL HAVE EFFECT ON SHORT TERM TRACK AND SUBSEQUENTLY LONGER TERM TRACK.

THATS ALL FOR TODAY....MORE TOMORROW....