TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL - 4:30 P.M. - THURSDAY - 8/16/01
GETTING
THIS UPDATE OUT EARLY TODAY SINCE I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE TONIGHT.
THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH CHANTAL TODAY.
FORWARD MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 20 MPH+.
THERE APEARS TO HAVE BEEN ONLY MINIMAL SLOWING OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.
CONVECTION REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED AND DOING ITS BEST TO KEEP ALIGNED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER CONSIDERING THE VERY RAPID FORWARD SPEED.
RECON WILL BE IN THE AREA SHORTLY...BUT I DON'T EXPECT ANY SURPRISES...I
THINK THEY WILL FIND A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ISLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. WORST CONDITIONS
WILL BE
INTENSITY:
CONDITIONS ARE PRIME FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND ARE FCST TO REMAIN PRIME
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS LATEST NCEP GLOBAL 200 MB FCSTS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE....BUT CHANTAL NEEDS TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE THERE IS GOING TO BE MUCH IF
ANY INTENSIFICATION.
IN
MY OPINION CHANTAL COULD BE A FORCE TO RECON WITH AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HAVE
NOT SEEN LATEST 5PM TPC PACKAGE BUT 11AM PACKAGE MAY BE A BIT OVER ZEALOUS WITH
INTENSITY..ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORTER RANGE.
IN SUMMARY....ONLY MINOR INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED NEXT 24-36
HOURS...THEN AS CHANTAL STARTS TO SLOW SHE SHOULD BE FREE TO DEEPEN...PERHAPS
RAPIDLY. GFDL/UKMET (12Z) HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE DISSIPATION IDEA AND SHIPS IS BACK TO NEAR 90 KTS IN 72
HRS.....80-90 KTS SEEMS REASONABLE BY 72 HRS.
SHORT
TERM TRACK: CHANTAL STILL REMAINS
TO SOUTH OF WELL ENTRENCHED DLM RIDGE...NO CHANGE IN THAT IS EXPECTED NEXT
24-48-72
HOURS. SO A GENERAL WEST..GRADUALLY
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 72 HRS.
TPC TROPICAL SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN THE VCTY OF 15-16N BY 72 HRS.
THEY HAVE PERSISTED IN THE MOST SOUTHERN ROUTE AS COMPARED TO GLOBAL
MODELS. FEELING HERE IS THAT
CHANTAL WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF DLM RIDGE BY ROUGHLY 72 HRS AND
THUS THE MORE NORTHERN ROUTE IS EXPECTED..AS PER LATEST 12Z NOGAPS/12Z UKMET.
LONGER
TERM TRACK: AS SUGGESTED LAST NIGHT
CHANTAL SEEMS DESTINED TO ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD
BEYOND 96 HOURS. THIS MAY BE BY WAY
OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR A TANGLE WITH CUBA....BUT BELIEVE CHANTAL IS DESTINED
FOR GULF. CAN'T SEE A TRACK RIGHT
ACROSS THE GULF AS MOST GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ON WESTERN
EXTENT OF SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO ALLOW A MORE NW/N MOTION TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR
EASTERN GULF COAST....SAY ROUGHLY FROM 90W ON EASTWARD. NCEP MANUAL PROGS ARE NOW FOLLOWING THIS IDEA...BACKING OFF
THE IDEA OF WESTERN ATLANTIC RECURVATURE THEY PRESENTED YESTERDAY.
INTENSITY IF ALL THIS WORKS OUT COULD BE INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST AS
SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF.
BOTTOM
LINE HERE....IT IS DAYS AND DAYS AWAY...BUT EARLY THINKING IS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES NEED TO KEEP A WARY EYE ON CHANTAL.
KEY
IN FCST IN LONGER RANGES HINGES ON HOW CHANTAL PERFORMS NEXT 24-48 HOURS....AS
SHORT TERM INTENSITY WILL HAVE EFFECT ON SHORT TERM TRACK AND SUBSEQUENTLY
LONGER TERM TRACK.
THATS ALL FOR TODAY....MORE TOMORROW....