CHANTAL LIVES - LONG LIVE CHANTAL   

TROPICAL WAVE CHANTAL/TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL/TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...CALL IT WHAT YOU WILL BUT SHE WILL BE A FORCE TO RECKON WITH....MY THINKING FROM LAST POST 4:30 P.M. THURSDAY REMAINS.

I'M NOT GOING TO SECOND GUESS TPC IN THEIR CALL TO DOWNGRADE CHANTAL YESTERDAY AT 8PM...IF RECON COULDN'T FIND A WEST WIND, THEY COULDN'T FIND A WEST WIND.  RECON IS IN THERE AS I TYPE THIS AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS SHOW WINDS OF 50-55 MPH.  CONVECTION IS EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE WITH CLOUD TOPS ON THE ORDER OF -80C.  I'VE SEEN NO WEST WINDS REPORTED BY RECON SO I ASSUME THEY STILL HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A SFC CTR.

I GOT HOME LAST NIGHT ABOUT 10:30 AND LOOKED AT ALL THE DATA THAT HAD COME IN SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...AND WAS NOT TOO SURPRISED RECON DIDN'T FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION ..... SYSTEM DID LOOK BETTER IN SATELLITE IMAGES AT 5AM YESTERDAY THAN IT DID AT 5PM...I THEN LOOKED AT 02-04Z IR SAT PICS AND IT WAS CLEAR CHANTAL WAS ON HER WAY BACK.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE AND VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS RESTRICTED ONLY BY THE BRISK FORWARD MOTION. 

SPEAKING OF WHICH...CURRENT CALCULATIONS SUGGEST "CHANTAL" HAS SLOWED SOME AND NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT JUST  UNDER 20 MPH....STILL ON A WEST OR A TAD NORTH OF DUE WEST.  FEEL CONFIDENT TPC WILL UPGRADE THIS BACK TO TS STATUS BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER.

LATEST NCEP GLOBAL 200MB PROGS SHOW CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR DEVELOPMENT. "CHANTAL" STANDS AN VERY GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING HCN STATUS WITHIN 72 HOURS.

TRACK THINKING REMAINS SAME FROM LAST POST.  WILL NEED TO SEE WHERE "NEW" CENTER GETS LOCATED WHEN IT IS FOUND AND THEN MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TRACK FCST.  GENERAL WEST-WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND TOWARD THE GULF.  IT NOW SEEMS A GIVEN THIS WILL STAY SOUTH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND WILL EITHER ENTER THE GULF CLEANLY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...OR OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA OR THE NW PORTION OF THE YUCATAN....NOT QUITE SURE.  NEEDLESS TO SAY IF IT PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT WILL NOT BE DISRUPTED BY LAND...EVEN SO...WESTERN CUBA IS RATHER FLAT AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT.

RESIDENTS OF THE GULF COAST NEED TO KEEP A WARY OF THE STORM WITH NO CLASSIFICATION.

MORE LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.