CHANTAL LIVES
- LONG LIVE CHANTAL
TROPICAL WAVE
CHANTAL/TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL/TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...CALL IT WHAT YOU
WILL BUT SHE WILL BE A FORCE TO RECKON WITH....MY THINKING FROM LAST POST 4:30
P.M. THURSDAY REMAINS.
I'M NOT GOING
TO SECOND GUESS TPC IN THEIR CALL TO DOWNGRADE CHANTAL YESTERDAY AT 8PM...IF
RECON COULDN'T FIND A WEST WIND, THEY COULDN'T FIND A WEST WIND.
RECON IS IN THERE AS I TYPE THIS AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS SHOW WINDS OF
50-55 MPH. CONVECTION IS EXTREMELY
IMPRESSIVE WITH CLOUD TOPS ON THE ORDER OF -80C.
I'VE SEEN NO WEST WINDS REPORTED BY RECON SO I ASSUME THEY STILL HAVE NOT
BEEN ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A SFC CTR.
I GOT HOME
LAST NIGHT ABOUT 10:30 AND LOOKED AT ALL THE DATA THAT HAD COME IN SINCE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND WAS NOT TOO SURPRISED RECON DIDN'T FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION
..... SYSTEM DID LOOK BETTER IN SATELLITE IMAGES AT 5AM YESTERDAY THAN IT DID AT
5PM...I THEN LOOKED AT 02-04Z IR SAT PICS AND IT WAS CLEAR CHANTAL WAS ON HER
WAY BACK.
LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE AND VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW
CHANNEL OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. OUTFLOW
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS RESTRICTED ONLY BY THE BRISK FORWARD MOTION.
SPEAKING OF
WHICH...CURRENT CALCULATIONS SUGGEST "CHANTAL" HAS SLOWED SOME AND NOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT JUST UNDER
20 MPH....STILL ON A WEST OR A TAD NORTH OF DUE WEST. FEEL CONFIDENT TPC WILL UPGRADE THIS BACK TO TS STATUS BEFORE
THE DAY IS OVER.
LATEST NCEP
GLOBAL 200MB PROGS SHOW CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FOR DEVELOPMENT. "CHANTAL" STANDS AN VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
REACHING HCN STATUS WITHIN 72 HOURS.
TRACK
THINKING REMAINS SAME FROM LAST POST. WILL
NEED TO SEE WHERE "NEW" CENTER GETS LOCATED WHEN IT IS FOUND AND THEN
MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TRACK FCST.
GENERAL WEST-WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND TOWARD THE
GULF. IT NOW SEEMS A GIVEN THIS
WILL STAY SOUTH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND WILL EITHER ENTER THE GULF
CLEANLY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...OR OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA OR THE NW
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN....NOT QUITE SURE. NEEDLESS
TO SAY IF IT PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT WILL NOT BE DISRUPTED BY
LAND...EVEN SO...WESTERN CUBA IS RATHER FLAT AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT.
RESIDENTS OF
THE GULF COAST NEED TO KEEP A WARY OF THE STORM WITH NO CLASSIFICATION.
MORE LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.