TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL
CHANTAL
REFUSES TO SLOW…AS A RESULT IT IS CAUSING HAVOC WITH INTENSITY FCSTS AND
TRACK.
CURRENTLY:
CHANTAL WAS DISRUPTED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY SHEAR TODAY AND AND THAT COMBINED
WITH HER CONTINUED FORWARD MOTION OF 20-25 MPH CAUSED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TO
BECOME DISPLACED FROM THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.
ACTUALLY, I SAW THIS SHEAR ON WV LOOPS LATE YESTERDAY AND DISCOUNTED IT
BECAUSE IT WAS VERY WEAK AND I WAS COUNTING ON CHANTAL SLOWING DOWN, BECOMING
STRONGER AND THINKING WAS SINCE SHEAR WAS SO WEAK IT WOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.
SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR STILL IS EVIDENT BUT IT APPEARS TO BE RELAXING.
IN
TRUE CHANTAL SPIRIT….SHE IS MAKING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY AT THIS HOUR.
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FORMING RAPIDLY OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER THAT
WAS EXPOSED MOST OF THE DAY.
GOOD OUTFLOW REMAINS IN ALL QUADS WITH A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.
WOULD EXPECT CHANTAL TO HOLD THE 60 MPH INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
START OF INCREASE IN INTENSITY TOMORROW.
SHE MAY HAVE SLOWED EVER SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS…BUT NOT BY
MORE THAN 2-3 MPH.
INTENSITY
FCST: HOLD
NEAR 60 MPH OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
CHANTAL WILL LIKELY BECOME A 75-85KT HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
THIS ASSUMES SHE SLOWS GRADUALLY IN FORWARD SPEED.
SOMETHING SHE HAS NOT DONE WELL OVER THE LAST 3-4 DAYS.
BEYOND THAT…IF SHE GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHOUT GETTING TANGLED
UP WITH LAND SHE COULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY…ESPECIALLY IF SHE THURS MORE NW
OR NNW. THIS
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THE EVENTUAL TRACK WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN THE INTENSITY
FCST.
TRACK:
MOST GLOBAL GUIDANCE SANS THE 12Z UKMET NOW TAKE CHANTAL ACROSS THE
YUCATAN AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE BIGGEST GUIDANCE CHANGE CAME FROM THE 18Z RUN OF THE NCEP AVN.
THIS MODEL HAD BEEN PERSISTENT IN TAKING CHANTAL NEAR OR THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL…NOW IT HAS MADE AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE YUCATAN
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SIMILAR
TO THE OUTLER EARLY RUNS OF THE GFDL…AND SIMILAR TO THE NCEP SOLUTION OF
YESTERDAY. NCEP
SOLUTION OF TODAY IS MORE OR LESS AN EXTRAP OF TPC 72 HR FCST AND IT BRINGS
CHANTAL INTO TEXAS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
I
AM NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS COMPLETELY.
CHANTAL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY GAIN IN LATITUDE.
IN ORDER FOR MAJORITY OF GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO VERIFY THAT WOULD HAVE TO
STOP ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND SHE WOULD THEN HAVE TO HEAD STRAIGHT WEST (270) FOR
NEXT 48 HOURS.
LATEST
WV LOOPS SHOWS SIG S/W DROPPING INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE FLOW OVER THE GULF SEEMS
TO BE ALREADY SHOWING SOME BACKING.
AT THE VERY LEAST THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DENT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
CHANTAL ALLOWING FOR A SLOW BUT STEADY GAIN IN LATITUDE.
AS SUCH…I AM AT LEAST FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THE 18Z AVN.
THE
FASTER CHANTAL CONTINUES TO MOVE THE MOVE LIKELY THE FURTHER NORTH SHE WILL
COME. IF
SHE SLOWED RAPIDLY THE WEAKNESS WOULD PASS HER BY…THE RIDGE WOULD RE-BUILD AND
SEND HER ON A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE.
BOTTOM
LINE….I’M LEANING MORE TOWARD THE OFFICIAL TPC TRACK PRESENTED IN THE 5PM
PACKAGE OR A LITTLE NORTH OF THAT.
THERE IS STILL A REASONABLE CHANCE CHANTAL COMES OVER THE EXTREME N.E.
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
I
WILL HAVE TO OPEN UP THE POSSIBILITY OF A TEXAS LANDFALL AT THIS POINT BUT
AGAIN…A LOT IS GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW STRONG CHANTAL GETS, HOW FAST SHE DOES
IT AND IF SHE SLOWS DOWN AND WHEN.
STILL
THINK THIS IS A REAL THREAT FOR THE U.S. GULF COAST.
BIGGEST RISK IS THAT CHANTAL TURNS NW/NNW IN LATER PERIODS….THIS SET OF
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO SOME POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT.
I’M NOT FCSTING IT…JUST ALERTING THE READER TO THE OUTSIDE CHANCE
THAT COULD HAPPEN.
AGAIN, INTENSITY WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND EFFECTS OF ANY LAND.
RESIDENTS
OF THE GULF COAST (NOW INCLUDING TEXAS) NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
CHANTAL…AT LEAST UNTIL A CLEAR TREND SETS IN THAT SAYS SHE IS NO LONGER A U.S.
THREAT.
MORE TOMORROW.