JUST A SHORT UPDATE - COMPLETE UPDATE THIS EVENING.

IR SAT PICS LAST FEW HOURS SUGGEST CHANTAL IS GAINING STRENGTH. VERY INTENSE CONVECTION (-85) HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION....FOR THE FIRST TIME CONVECTION IS NOT RAGGED AND MUCH MORE SYMMETRICAL. RECON REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 994 MBS AT 06Z AND CONVECTION WAS NOT INTENSE OR IMPRESSIVE THEN AS IT IS NOW. WILL NEED TO HOLD OFF ON GETTING CARRIED AWAY SINCE CHANTAL HAS
GIVEN SOME FALSE IMPRESSIONS BASED ON SATELLITE ONLY LAST FEW DAYS. BUT FEEL CONFIDENT RECON WILL FIND LOWER PRESSURES IN A FEW HOURS, HIGHER WINDS AND THUS CHANTAL WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE THIS MORNING...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 8AM DEPENDING WHAT RECON HAS SHOWN BY THEN....DON'T THINK TPC IS GOING TO UPGRADE IT WITHOUT RECON DATA TO SUPPORT THE UPGRADE.

SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS VERY IMPRESSIVE.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM LAST NIGHT. CHANTAL HAS FINALLY SLOWED...MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED. BASED ON AVAIL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS FORWARD MOTION MAY CONTINUE TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS....BEYOND THAT WE NEED TO WATCH THE
HEIGHT FIELDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.

STILL THINK MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS TOO FAR LEFT AND TPC TRACK IS GOING TO NEED A NUDGE TO THE RIGHT. GULF COAST RESIDENTS
STAY TUNED.

MORE LATER.