TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ISSUED: MONDAY 8/20/01 6:30 A.M.

Latest on Chantal....No change from posts of late yesterday afternoon/early evening.  Chantal remains poorly organized and was not able to develop a center under the

deepest convection.  As such no significant change in intensity is expected prior to landfall.  Current track from TPC looks good and I am in total agreement.

One question I have is will Chantal be able to hold together as she crosses the Yucatan?  She is very disorganized and her passage over land is going to be slow.

I question that she reaches hurricane intensity as per TPC fcst by 72 hours.  I would not be surprised if she either falls apart completely or makes landfall along the Mexican coast as a weak to moderate tropical storm.  At this point I do not expect she will attain hurricane intensity over the Bay of Campeche before Mexican landfall.

Elsewhere....I'm not impressed with any other features over the Atlantic basin at the moment and as such I do not expect Tropical Storm formation through at least 7pm Wednesday.  Wave/weak tropical low mid way between Islands and Africa is poorly organized with minimal convection and is moving quite fast.  Some guidance is bullish on developing this feature....it is possible but not for the next 72 hours at least.

Will post this evening only if there are significant changes to the above outlook.