TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL ISSUED: MONDAY – 8/20/01 – 6:30 A.M.
Latest
on Chantal....No change from posts of late yesterday afternoon/early evening.
Chantal remains poorly organized and was not able to develop a center
under the
deepest
convection. As
such no significant change in intensity is expected prior to landfall.
Current track from TPC looks good and I am in total agreement.
One
question I have is will Chantal be able to hold together as she crosses the
Yucatan? She
is very disorganized and her passage over land is going to be slow.
I
question that she reaches hurricane intensity as per TPC fcst by 72 hours.
I would not be surprised if she either falls apart completely or makes
landfall along the
Elsewhere....I'm
not impressed with any other features over the Atlantic basin at the moment and
as such I do not expect Tropical Storm formation through at least 7pm Wednesday.
Wave/weak tropical low mid way between Islands and Africa is poorly
organized with minimal convection and is moving quite fast.
Some guidance is bullish on developing this feature....it is possible but
not for the next 72 hours at least.
Will post this evening only if there are significant changes to the above outlook.