Subject: T.D. #2 - 7:00 A.M. - THURSDAY - 7/12/01
Date: 7/12/2001 7:07 AM Eastern Daylight Time
From: SNONUT
Message-id: <20010712070735.13869.00003851@ng-bk1.aol.com>


FIRST VIS 10Z SAT PIC AS WELL AS LATEST IR PIC SHOW T.D. #2 IS HOLDING ITS OWN. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO BE BELOW -60C WITH A SMALL
TIGHT BALL OF CONVECTION. CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION PER LATEST TPC PSN OF 12.3N/46.2W.

LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 11Z SUPPORTS TPC INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 25 KTS.

TPC INITIAL MOTION OF 295 IS SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE 300 HEADING IN THE INITIAL ADVISORY. SYSTEM MAY BE RESPONDING MORE TO LL STEERING THAN DEEPER MEAN FLOW. IN ANY EVENT THE BASED ON LATEST LOOPS THE 295 LOOKS A LITTLE GENEROUS AND COULD BE MORE LIKE
285. WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF MOTION WHEN A LOOP OF VISIBLE PICS BECOME AVAIL LATER THIS MORNING.

CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH OF T.D.#2 COULD START TO INHIBIT SOME OF THE LL SOUTHERLY INFLOW LATER TODAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT THEN CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE AS WE ENTER THE 36-72 HR RANGE. 

AS FAR AS TRACK....NOT THAT MUCH TO ARGUE WITH IN LATEST TPC TRACK TO 72 HOURS....AS MENTIONED IN POST LAST NIGHT THIS COULD BE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL OR MORE LIKELY THE NORTHERN ISLANDS SATURDAY/SUNDAY....AND IT IS NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IT DOES SO AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

INTENSITY....AGAIN NOT MUCH TO DISAGREE WITH ON LATEST TPC INTENSITY FCST. INTENSITY FCSTING IS RISKY BUSINESS BUT IT APPEARS ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY 72 HOURS. WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE A MINIMAL 75 MPH HURRICANE 
BY THAT TIME...CLIMO IS SORT OF AGAINST THAT BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE....IN FACT ONLY LIMITING FACTOR I SEE RIGHT NOW IS
FACT THAT INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH COULD BE LIMITED FROM CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE....BUT OVER TIME THAT SHOULD BE LESS OF A FACTOR. SO, FIGURE ON A MODERATE TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM AT LEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS....NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZE T.D.#2 WELL AT ALL. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS HANDLED WELL BY ALL OF THE LATEST AVAIL GLOBAL GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS IS THAT THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RELAX
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THERE WILL BE A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE HT FIELD ALONG AND OFF THE EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 5-7 TO PERHAPS 10- DAYS.

HOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS IS UP FOR GRABS....AND WILL BE KEY AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF T.D. #2. GLOBAL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
AS LARGE TROF OFF/ALONG THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WEST WITH T.D.#2. SO, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PULLED NORTH INTO THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO STRONG RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE OR IS FORCED MORE WEST OR W-N-W TO THE SOUTH OF BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AT LOWER LATITUDES.

WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS IN THE DAYS AHEAD...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS SYSTEM CAN'T BE QUICKLY WRITTEN OFF AS AN EASY RE-CURVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

ON A FINAL NOTE.....PATTERN TO ME SEEMS TO BE RIPENING FOR EAST COAST (ESPECIALLY KEYW TO KHAT) THREATS LATER IN THE SEASON. MORE
ON THIS THINKING AT A LATER TIME. I WILL BE VERY SURPRISED IF THIS HURRICANE SEASON CLOSES WITHOUT A DIRECT HIT OF A CAT 3 OR GREATER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KEYW AND KHAT.

WE SHALL SEE.